Scenario Driven Concurrent Emergency Chain Modeling Method

With the rapid development of economic globalization,various types of emergencies have become more frequent and have exhibited a more pronounced “domino effect”,resulting in serious loss of life and property.At the same time,it also severely restricts the pace of economic globalization.The evolution of emergencies easily leads to various types of emergencies,resulting in multiple concurrent incidents.At the same time,because of the similarity between the affected environment and the incidents,the impact of multiple concurrent emergencies has a causal effect.The effect or coupling effect makes the evolution and development of emergencies more complex and uncertain,which exacerbates the difficulty of the evolution and development of emergencies,reduces the emergency management and control efficiency of emergencies,and has a more serious impact on human society.Therefore,for contingency emergencies,how to better analyze its evolutionary development trend and predict its possible losses,and implement effective emergency management and decision-making to reduce the possible losses and threats caused by emergencies are urgent in the field of emergency management.Scientific research issues that need to be addressed.In the process of evolution and development of emergencies,unexpected events continuously interact with the external environment,and promote the evolution of events through the complex relationship between event attributes.Therefore,by analyzing the complex influence relations between attributes,we can better understand the internal mechanism of events,clarify the relationship between events,and effectively analyze the evolution mechanism of emergencies.In addition,with the continuous development of the “scenarioresponse” emergency treatment model,it can effectively reduce the uncertainty in the emergency treatment process compared to the traditional “prediction-response” model,and improve the emergency treatment efficiency of emergencies.For this reason,given the significant advantages of Bayesian networks in solving uncertain inference problems,the problem of evolutionary analysis of contingency emergencies.In this paper,the Bayesian network is used as a tool to give the modeling method of concurrent bursts based on scenario evolution.First of all,using system theory knowledge to abstractly describe sudden events from the attribute level,and define the causal role and coupling effect between events based on the analysis of attributes and the relationship between events.Secondly,according to the analysis of the state evolution mechanism of the emergency situation,the mapping relationship between the evolution of the situation and the evolution of emergencies is analyzed to provide a theoretical basis for the construction of the evolutionary analysis model based on the scenario evolution.Thirdly,based on the analysis of the different interactions between events,the correlative network correlation method is used to correlate the Bayesian network model of the incidents based on the different interactions between the events.The dynamic construction method of the event evolution model;Finally,taking a specific rainstorm process in Yibin City,Sichuan Province,as an example,this paper uses the method to construct an evolutionary network model of torrential rain and its derived hazards.It predicts the possible damages caused by the evolution of disasters and passes the scientific rationality of practical application verification methods.Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the evolution of contingency emergencies,this paper proposes a method of constructing a context-based contingency emergent event chain evolution analysis model based on Bayesian network,which is the evolution of contingency emergencies.Analysis provides a model carrier;at the same time,through this model,the complex interactions between contingency and emergencies can be grasped as a whole,the evolutionary mechanism of its action can be better analyzed,the accuracy of model loss prediction can be improved,and the efficiency of emergency response can be improved.