Risk Management Research Of Unconventional Emergency Based On Scenario-Response Model

As the process of economic globalization,unconventional emergency such as natural disasters,public health,social security have entered a high period,which have an effect on different areas and fields.It is gradually becoming a threat to people's lives and property and social harmonious development as well.The risk management of unconventional emergency has become an important national issue in different governments departments and research institutions.However,the traditional risk management models based on experience and historical data is no longer apply to the unconventional emergency,which is fulminate and extremely destructive.As ideal dynamics description media of unconventional emergency,scenario is suitable for its risk management.What's more,the immediacy of scenario can also guarantee the development of contingency measures of event state,which can truly reflect the real problem.This paper aims to fully analyze the characteristics of unconventional emergency based on the principle of using scenario analysis method to establish a more suitable risk management system.This paper is mainly to solve the problems in three areas: The first part is the study of the properties of unconventional emergencies which including evolutionary cycle,proliferation and spread model;The second part is the detail description of scenario and scenario analysis process and then the risk management system of unconventional emergency is established based on the traditional one;The third part is focus on the risk response module,especially the construction of scenario network and response measures to provide a more intuitive and effective auxiliary support with as quantitative data for decision making.The entire paper structure is divided into six chapters and the main contents are as follows:The first chapter is the introduction.The introduction provides an overview of research background,research significance and purposes.What's more,an study review of unconventional emergency risk management and scenario-response emergency decision research both at home and abroad is spread.The second chapter is theoretical review,the main concepts of unconventional emergency and feature classification of risk management.The third chapter is the scenario construction of unconventional emergency,which contain two parts: the mechanism study of scenarios and evolutionary cycle models of unconventional emergency,so the theoretical basis of scenario analysis to solve unconventional emergency is established initially.The fourth chapter is the establishment of risk management research of unconventional emergency based on scenario-response model.This chapter details the process and key steps of the risk management system,in which the construction of scenario networks based on FSR and Bayesian probability model is proposedThe fifth chapter is case analysis.Here select the Fuchun River water pollution incident occurred recently as an empirical study to verify the validity and usefulness of the model.It is noteworthy that preliminary inquiry with group psychology and behavior is also introduced to ensure practicality.The last chapter is conclusions and prospects.This chapter is mainly reviewed the resolved issues of the whole paper and point out the unsolved problem for future research.