Research On Optimization Of Emergency Plan Execution Status Based On Prospect Theory

Emergency plan is a plan or scheme that is made in advance to ensure the rapid,orderly and effective emergency and rescue operations and reduce accident losses in the process of emergency disposal.However,at present,the existing emergency plans are generally text-based documents to guide emergency response,which have some problems,such as poor operational response on site,unclear logic of emergency response process,and so on.At the same time,because the development and evolution of emergencies are highly uncertain,with the implementation of alternative emergency plans and the advancement of time,the demand for emergency response will change correspondingly with the development of emergencies.In the face of real-time update of emergency disposal needs,the emergency plan in execution may fail to meet the current situation,and the continued implementation of part of the disposal process in the emergency plan will also reduce the utilization efficiency of emergency resources and affect the efficiency of emergency disposal.For the decision-makers of emergency response,we should pay attention to their psychological behavior characteristics in the process of emergency response.This paper is mainly based on the decision-making thought of prospect theory,considering the psychological behavior characteristics of emergency decision makers to provide decision-making reference for the optimization and adjustment of emergency plans.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Processing and structural analysis of emergency plan.This paper uses the expression of network plan in project management to process the emergency plan based on "scenario-task-subject-resource".By identifying and screening representative scenarios,identifying the corresponding objects of scenarios,i.e.the objects of the implementation of the plan,clarifying the objectives and effects required to achieve after the implementation of the plan,clarifying the corresponding relationship between the emergency response tasks and the subjects of the plan.In the process of emergency response,the logical relationship between emergency tasks is clearer.Emergency decision-makers have clearer control over the key procedures and time of emergency response.At the same time,they provide some theoretical reference for the digital expression of emergency response plan.(2)Optimization and adjustment of emergency plan execution state based on prospect theory.The emergency plan is optimized and adjusted from the level of the plan.Based on the decision-making thought of prospect theory,the psychological and behavioral characteristics of the decision-makers are fully considered,the relevant factors affecting the emergency decision-making are analyzed,and the emergency decision-making model is constructed.The execution state of the emergency plan is divided into two kinds: start and close.By closing the plan that no longer applies to the current situation and starting the most suitable plan for the current situation,the execution state of the emergency plan is optimized and adjusted.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model are verified by the case of foundation pit support structure damage.(3)Optimization and adjustment of execution state of emergency plan disposal procedure based on prospect theory.The emergency plan is optimized and adjusted from the level of the disposal process.based on the perspective of prospect theory and considering the psychological and behavioral characteristics of decision-makers,a method for optimizing the state of emergency plan execution in the process of execution is proposed.By adjusting the execution state of the disposal process in time,the efficiency of the use of emergency resources and the disposal efficiency of emergency plans can be improved,which provides decision-making basis for the dynamic adjustment of the execution state of emergency plans disposal procedures in the process of emergency response.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the rationality and validity of the proposed method.