The Study On Crowd Vulnerability In Stampedes At Large Rallies

Since the reform and opening up,China has witnessed rapid economic development,continuous improvement of productivity,increasing improvement of people's living standards,increasing material and cultural needs of the people,and various large-scale rallies and activities have been held one after another.However,with the event came not only joy and joy,but also pain and tears.Due to the lack of experience of the event organizer,imperfect emergency plans and weak safety awareness of the personnel,the crowd quickly formed a highly concentrated state when people crowded into the venue of the event.Crowded and trampled events would occur with specific incentives,resulting in a large number of casualties and bad social impact.In addition,the human factor is the most prominent and important link in the stampede event.However,there is a relative vacuum in the research on the vulnerability of the crowd in the stampede event in China,which needs to be further studied.Therefore,it is necessary to study the vulnerability of crowds in stampedes of large rallies.Based on safety system engineering,operations research,fuzzy mathematics and other theories,this study makes an in-depth study on the crowd vulnerability in the stampede event of large rallies.Firstly,the definition of large rallies and stampedes and the meaning of crowd vulnerability in large rallies and stampedes are defined.Secondly,by collecting and investigating the accident cases in the stampede event of large rallies and events,and making statistical analysis of the accidents,the accident occurrence law can be explored.Through literature research and accident statistical analysis,the crowd vulnerability factors in the stampede event of large rallies were preliminarily identified,and on this basis,the crowd vulnerability factors were screened by Delphi method.Then according to the vulnerability theory,the vulnerability factors after screening are divided into three dimensions of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability,and a hierarchical analysis and evaluation model is established.The weight of population vulnerability evaluation index system was determined by ahp and expert scoring,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established.Finally,the model was applied to a temple fair to evaluate the vulnerability of the participants.The practical application proves that the evaluation model has good applicability,and puts forward corresponding measures according to the evaluation results.The establishment of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of crowd vulnerability in stampedes of large-scale rallies has positive theoretical and practical significance for strengthening the safety management of rallies,preventing and avoiding stampedes.