Research On Forecasting The Demand Of Pension Institutional For The Aged In Jinniu District Based On Multi-agent Model

In recent years,Jinniu District has been the most serious aging degree in all districts(cities)of Chengdu.By 2017.The number of elderly population in this area(city)county has accounted for 24.4% of the total population,and it indicated that Jinniu District has entered a period of serious aging.In order to alleviate the problem of providing for the aged caused by aging through the way of pension institutional,the pension institutional needs of the elderly need to be taken into account.Predictably building pension institutions will meet the needs of the elderly and improve the utilization rate of pension resources in the future.However,considering the pension institutional needs of the elderly are dynamic.There is complexity in the process of selecting institutions.Therefore,a multi-agent model is constructed,which includes the main body of the elderly,the main body of pension institutions and environmental factors(family relatives,government policies).The relevant information needed by the article is obtained through the electronic database,the relevant government department and the related unit portal website,the social sample survey.The data are analyzed by classified regression decision tree and so on,and the multi-agent model is constructed.Finally,the simulation of multi-agent model is realized through Netlogo platform.The results are as follows: the total population of Jinniu District is increasing,with a total population of 188000 by 2030.The age structure of the elderly population is changing,the younger elderly have shown a downward trend,and the elderly have grown rapidly.The demand for pension institutional by the elderly population is increasing,and 79000 demands have been put forward by 2030.For different types of pension institutions,leisure apartment pension institutions have the greatest demand,followed by medical care and integration institutions.The supply of beds in pension institutions continues to increase.According to the government "9064" development plan,the result is that the supply is less than the demand.At the same time,some suggestions are put forward to the main body of the elderly,the main body of pension institutions,government policies and family relatives of the elderly.