The Influence Of Urban Public Goods Supply On The Permanent Migration Intention Of Migrants

Since the reform and opening up,as the regional economic development has become unbalanced,China’s floating population has also expanded,from more than 6 million people in the 1980 s to 241 million people in 2018.According to statistics,the proportion of floating population in the total population reached 17.72% in 2018.In addition,China’s population mobility model is also changing.From the personal mobility of labor to family mobility,labor and its family members have settled for a long time in the place of inflow,and they have begun to enter the second process of population migration,namely the permanent migration of migrant.Such a large-scale influx of floating population into the city is no longer just a pursuit of high income.With the permanent migration of more family-like floating population,the city’s public goods supply capacity is increasingly demanding.At this stage,the level of public goods supply in China is generally low,and there are still large regional differences.There is a trend of population agglomeration in large cities.Increasing the supply level of urban public goods and promoting the equalization of regional supply can alleviate this trend and help to form a scientific urbanization pattern.This paper uses the matching data of the 2017 China floating population dynamic monitoring survey data and the characteristic data of 283 cities to study the impact of urban public goods supply on the permanent migration intention of the floating population,and further investigate the urban public goods supply on the permanent migration intention of the floating population Heterogeneity effect.Judging from the spatial distribution of the permanent migration intentions of China’s floating population in 2017,the eastern region has the strongest permanent migration intentions,and the central and western regions are relatively low.In addition,there is a clear polarization between the cities.The percentage of municipalities willing to move permanently is 1.6 times and 2.1 times that of provincial capitals(including sub-provincial cities)and other prefecture-level cities.In the empirical part,this paper builds a binary logit model based on the characteristic data of 283 cities across the country.Empirical research shows that the higher the level of urban supply of public goods,the stronger the willingness of migrants to migrate permanently.In addition,analyzing the heterogeneous effect of the urban public goods supply on the permanent migration intention of the floating population shows that,compared with the population with higher education,the urban public goods supply has a stronger effect on the permanent migration intention of the floating population with only primary education;compared with the cross-provincial floating population,the urban public goods supply has a stronger effect on the permanent migration intention of the floating population within the province;compared with low-age groups,the effect of urban public goods supply on the permanent migration intention of high-age groups is stronger than that of low-age groups.Based on the above analysis results,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations in order to improve the permanent migration intention of the floating population and promote the process of equalization of urban public goods supply.