Research On Dynamic Patterns Recognition Of Afghan Refugee Migration(1979-2027) And Governance Approaches

Suffering 40 years of conflicts,natural disasters,chronic poverty and food security,Afghans make up one of the largest refugee populations worldwide.The past decades have seen millions of Afghans flee from their homes to other countries for protection.With the withdrawal of the US military in 2021,a humanitarian crisis is approaching,and the number of Afghans fleeing is predicted to continue to increase.However,refugee migration has been described as “one of the biggest humanitarian challenges of the 21 st century”.Along with the refugees’ movement,many problems will occur,such as security threats,heavy pressure on hosting countries and so on.According to the data provided by the UNHCR,GIDD and World Bank databases,with both qualitative and quantitative methods,this study attempts to explore migration patterns(1979-2021)and future trends(2023-2027)of Afghan refugees.The dynamic migration patterns between 1979 and 2021 are described with quantitative indicators representing volume,distance,spread and direction.Besides,this study analyzes push and pull factors that shape the patterns from the dimensions of Afghanistan’s domestic economy,religion,culture,demographic,and change in the international political landscape.The migration trend(2023-2027)is predicted by the modified gravity model of population migration,providing data insights for subsequent research and governance.Since Afghan refugees prefer the neighboring countries,most of which are located along the Belt and Road route,considering the implementation of the BRI projects and security governance along the BRI route,this study explores China’s indirect role in Afghan refugee governance.With the theory of regional public goods provision,this study figures out the function of the BRI as a regional public good in helping ease the pressure of hosting countries on Afghan refugee governance.