Study On The Effects Of Aging And Population Flow On The Consumption Level Of Chinese Residents

The low level of resident consumption on the one hand hampers China's economic growth,and on the other hand,it is closely related to people's lives.Therefore,research on resident consumption is of great significance.The acceleration of the aging process and the large number of population movements are one of the important reasons that affect the consumption of the residents.The specific relationship between these two and the consumption of residents requires us to further explore.Firstly,this article collates the literature on aging,population mobility,and residents' consumption.Based on this,it elaborates the development of related theories and the starting point of research.Afterwards,the article reviewed the current situation and causes of aging,population movement,and residents' consumption in China,as well as the changing trends at each stage.Then the article introduced changes in population structure and inflows and outflows of population on the basis of Cobb Douglas utility function,life cycle theory,and Keynesian absolute income theory.It was found that changes in population structure directly changed the level of resident consumption on the one hand,and on the other hand,It also influences consumption indirectly by changing the labor structure.The inflow and outflow of population directly affects the consumption through the number of flows.In addition,the floating population has the characteristics of being younger and more knowledgeable.The younger population adjusts the structure of the population and thus improves the structure of the labor force.Knowledgeable technology increases technological progress and promotes production.It also indirectly affects consumption.Based on this,the paper uses the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2012 to conduct an empirical analysis.The results show that:(1)The effect of old-age dependency ratio on the per capita resident consumption is negative,which shows that with the elderly population Increases will curb consumer spending.(2)The effect of population inflows on the per-capita residents' consumption is positive.This shows that as the influx of people increases,the consumption of residents in the inflow areas will be promoted.On the contrary,as the outflow of population increases,the consumption of residents in the outflow areas will be curbed.(3)With regard to regional differences in different levels of development,the results in all regions are consistent with those in the whole country.Only the outflow population in the eastern region shows a promoting effect.Considering that the outflow population in the central region is relatively large,it may contribute to the reasons for sending money back home.Residents of outflows consume.Based on the empirical results,we propose the following five aspects of policy recommendations:(1)Formulate a population policy to reduce population aging,raise fertility rate,and fully release the policy of second child.(2)Improve the old-age insurance system to ensure that more senior citizens are "old and depend on".(3)Vigorously develop the elderly industry and stimulate the consumption of the elderly population.(4)For the central and western regions,it is necessary to enhance the attractiveness of employment,encourage and subsidize new types of industries to start businesses in the central and western regions,stimulate economic growth in the central and western regions,increase employment opportunities,and save large numbers of talented people.(5)For the eastern region,we must do a good job of the resettlement of the migrant population,and in particular,increase the subsidy system for housing for foreign residents.