A Research On The Reciprocal Effect Between Population Flow And Economic Development In Jilin Province

On the one hand,in the analytical framework of economic development,human resources are an important factor affecting the economic development of a region.In recent years,along with the improvement of China's socialist market economic system,the institutional barriers to population migration have gradually declined,resulting in more frequent inter-regional population movements.Although from the perspective of China's economy as a whole,the free flow of population will lead to the further optimization and allocation of resources,which is conducive to China's overall economic development.However,from the perspective of local regional economy,population movement has a very different impact on the economic development of the net inflow area and the net outflow area.On the other hand,the economic development of a region is an important factor affecting the flow of people in the region,because regional residents can “vote with their feet” and choose economically developed regions for study,work and life.Therefore,systematic and accurate analysis of the interaction between population mobility and regional economic development has important theoretical and practical value for a profound understanding of the interaction mechanism between population mobility and regional economic development.As an important part of the economic revitalization of the old industrial bases in Northeast China,Jilin Province has always ranked the first in the three provinces in terms of the net migration rate of the floating population.The population mobility problem is typical.Therefore,this paper takes Jilin Province as the analysis object and deeply analyzes the interaction between population movement in Jilin Province and economic development in Jilin Province.Firstly,through the combing of relevant theories and the review of the previous literature,this paper clarifies the related concepts of population mobility and economic development,and expounds relevant theories and related literatures at home and abroad,laying a theoretical foundation for subsequent research.Secondly,from the floating population The four aspects of education,age structure,average length of stay and reasons for migration grasp the current situation of population mobility,and explain thecurrent situation of economic development in Jilin Province from the aspects of regional GDP,three industrial structures and fixed assets investment;The gray correlation model obtains the correlation degree of the relevant factors of the floating population to the GDP of Jilin Province,and then the influence direction and effect degree of the economic related indicators on the floating population are obtained according to the principal component regression model.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,through the use of Deng's grey correlation model,the ranking of population mobility related indicators to the GDP of Jilin Province is ranked: the number of people in the province> the number of people flowing due to family reasons> the number of migrants >Number of permanent residents> Number of people moving due to work> Number of inter-provincial mobility>Number of college graduates or above in inter-provincial mobility.The number of people in the province is the strongest correlation with the GDP of the GDP.The floating population in the province is stronger than the inter-provincial floating population.The people who flow due to family reasons have strong influence on the economy.The reason is the main thrust of the mobile workers in Jilin Province to leave their original place of residence.In addition,the former has a stronger effect on economic development than the resident.Moreover,in the inter-provincial mobility,the relationship between the people with higher education and the economy is significant,and the issue of talent introduction of higher education should also receive sufficient attention.Secondly,by using the principal component regression model to fit the eight economic development indicators into two principal component factors,the material factor and the human factor,the results show that,in addition to the indicator of the number of employees concentrated in the human factor,the other seven indicators Both have a positive force on the normalized log-dependent dependent variable and are concentrated in the comprehensive indicator of the material factor.Through regression analysis,the direction and extent of the impact of the eight economic development indicators on the floating population were obtained.The strengths of the eight independent variables are ranked as the number of employees,investment in fixed assets,added value of the secondary industry,added value of the primary industry,GDP,GDP per capita,average wage of employees,and added value of the tertiary industry.The possible innovations of this paper are as follows.First,due to the unique geographical location of Jilin Province and the prominent population problems,the study of population mobility and economic development in Jilin Province may help scholars and friends to similar topics in other inland provinces in China.Discuss it.Second,this paper avoids the research hotspots of mainstream scholars recently,such as the aging and minority-childization of the age structure of the population in Northeast China.Compared with the problem of population aging,the problem of population mobility more directly reflects the changes in the labor factor in the economic growth model,and it also more intuitively reflects the problem.Thirdly,in terms of index selection,the past literature mostly used the fifth national census and the sixth national census data as macro data for statistical analysis,but there are problems such as large data age span and long time.The data analysis results can not be referenced.Good,in order to make up for this kind of defect,this article quotes some scholars' data on the 2015 national 1%population sample survey as a reference.Fourth,this paper is not limited to simply analyzing the impact of population mobility on economic development,or the effect of economic development on population movements,but exploring the interaction between the two,selecting typical indicators for analysis and comparing them.The influence of various factors on the target variables is strong and weak,and the direction and extent of interaction between the indicators of population mobility and economic development are explored.However,there are also many shortcomings in this paper.For example,in the part that studies the impact of various economic indicators in Jilin Province on the floating population,since the number of floating population in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2017 has not been fully announced,it is chosen 2000-2017.Passenger traffic in Jilin Province is an approximate indicator of the size of the floating population in Jilin Province.Although the development trends of the two are similar,they are still different from the actual floating population data.These shortcomings,I will be corrected and compensated one by one in future study and research work.