Demographic Change,Transfer Payment And Economic Growth

With the reform of the tax system,as an important means to effectively alleviate the financial relationship between the central and local governments,transfer payment is of great significance to promote the equalization of local financial resources.In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,it was proposed to establish a new type of financial relationship between the central and local governments,which pointed out the direction for further standardizing my country's fiscal transfer payment system,promoting the division of government powers and expenditure responsibilities,realizing the equalization of regional financial resources and improving the level of economic development.The central government's local transfer payment system does not allocate the total amount of funds completely according to the formula,but consists of multiple independent transfer payment sub-projects.The purpose of these sub-projects is different,some are to balance the differences between regions,and some are to ensure the smooth implementation of the policy when the country issues major policies.In terms of fund allocation,except for balanced transfer payments,other projects do not allocate funds according to the formula.The central government's research on the local transfer payment fund allocation mechanism has gone through the process from technical discussion to empirical analysis and summary.The resident population data has a wide range of applications and is an important basic data for formulating development plans,evaluating the production capacity of the national economy,and evaluating the current welfare level of residents.Whether it is a general transfer payment or a special transfer payment,population factors,especially the resident population factors,will directly or indirectly affect the final distribution result when the quota is allocated.The relationship between demographic factors and transfer payments,the current research of scholars mainly focuses on two aspects,one is to use it as one of the factors affecting transfer payments,empirically explore the direction and size of its impact,and the second is to explore transfer payments and population mobility Relationship.By studying the census data of the United States,foreign scholars have found that the population will have an abnormal change every ten years of the census.The scholars have defined the concept of census shock based on this,and found that it has many satisfactory characteristics.These characteristics make census shocks a natural experiment,empirically analyzing the impact of census shocks on federal expenditures,and then exploring the stimulating effects of federal expenditures on employment,income,and economic growth.By analyzing my country's demographic data from 2005 to 2016,it can be seen that during the 2010 census year,nearly half of the provinces in my country experienced abnormal changes in the growth rate of the permanent population.This phenomenon indicates that my country also had a census shock in 2010,and it may directly affect the government's macroeconomic policies,which in turn will affect economic growth.Inspired by the research of foreign scholars,at the same time,after data analysis,it is found that the same phenomenon exists in China.This article will define the concept of census shock,and treat it as a natural experiment,using the double difference and triple difference methods to set a comparison Group and two experimental groups,first analyze the impact of abnormal permanent population changes on the central level of transfer payments at the provincial level.The empirical results show that the census shock has a suppressive effect on transfer payments,and this effect has a significant effect in the first two years of the release of the shock,and then gradually weakens.Based on the above analysis,this thesis next uses the panel VAR(PVAR)model to perform impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis to explore the interactive relationship between the changes in permanent population,changes in transfer payments and changes in economic growth.There is a transmission mechanism,that is,changes in the permanent population will affect transfer payments,which in turn will affect economic growth.Based on the above phenomena and empirical analysis,it can be seen that my country's current reform of the resident population-oriented transfer payment allocation plan can better exert the equalization effect of transfer payments.At the same time,the research ideas in this article can also provide a certain reference value for the impact of the upcoming census and its statistical data on macro policies and economic growth.