Study On The Influence Factors Of Grain Price In Hunan Province

Food prices has been one of the key issues of the relationship between the livelihood of the people.Due to the rapid progress of urbanization,the expansion of cities and the policy orientation of agricultural development,the area of grain farming is bound to be affected to a certain extent.In addition,the comprehensive influence of factors such as the fluctuation of international grain price and so on,as the basic production and living material of the people,once the price fluctuates,It is bound to have an impact on people's production and life,and even to the development of industries and other industries.In order to study the influence factors of grain price fluctuation,we select Hunan province as samples,by using six variable acquisition price fluctuation of grain in Hunan province and the 2000 to 2015 16 years of data using linear description and VAR model to analyze the influencing factors of grain price fluctuation in Hunan province.In order to carry out the research,the article is divided into the following parts:The first chapter is the introduction,introduces the research significance,the food price volatility,and the related research results of influence factors of price fluctuation of grain in Hunan Province,so as to find the starting point for the study of grain price fluctuation in Hunan;the second chapter is about the concept of grain price fluctuation and related theories.The concept and interpretation of grain price related,as well as the related theories of grain price fluctuation,such as cobweb theory,supply and demand principle,industrial chain theory,Marx's law of value,can be used to explain the fluctuation of real grain price in mechanism;the third chapter is the analysis of factors of Hunan grain price fluctuation and influence,combined with the related theoretical analysis,combing the comprehensive influencing factors of grain price fluctuation,analyze the related data from three on the supply side,demand side and policy;the fourth chapter is the empirical study on grain price fluctuation in Hunan,through the use of The data collected,using VAR model to analyze the influencing factors of grain price fluctuation in Hunan,detailed discussed the overall specification and development ideas of grain price fluctuation;The fifth chapter,countermeasures and suggestions to stabilize the grain price fluctuation in Hunan province.Combined with the analysis of grain price fluctuation,the conclusion of the article is discussed,and the corresponding improvement strategy is put forward.Analysis of the main conclusions are: food price volatility is a complex issue,in accordance with the cobweb theory,theory of supply and demand,industry chain theory analysis,combined with previous results,select the grain yield,the price of agricultural production,GDP,farmers disposable income,consumer price index,the international crude oil price of 6 variables as the grain price fluctuation factors analysis showed that: Hunan Province,grain price fluctuation and grain yield,the price of agricultural production,GDP,farmers disposable long-term cointegration relationship between income and consumer price index,the international crude oil prices,grain prices and grain yield of other factors is Grainger reciprocal causation,one-way causality of food price fluctuation;impulse response and variance decomposition show that the grain price fluctuation to a certain extent by grain production The impact and impact of the quantity,the price of agricultural production data,the gross domestic product,the disposable income of farmers,the consumer price index and the international crude oil price.The research shows that stabilizing grain price fluctuation in Hunan can start with the impact factors of these shocks,and develop relatively feasible measures to ease the ups and downs of grain prices.