Study On The Influence Of Income On Dairy Consumption Of Urban Residents And Regional Differences

According to the 13 th Five-Year Plan for the Dairy Industry,it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of the mode of development of the dairy industry and promote the adjustment and upgrade of the dairy industry.By 2020,the dairy industry as a whole will enter the advanced ranks of the world.In order to achieve the planning goal,it is necessary to strengthen the demand-side regulation and control of the dairy industry and expand domestic demand.The absolute income hypothesis of Keynes holds that the absolute level of income determines consumption,and the improvement of dairy consumption structure should be based on the growth of income.The increase of income level can stimulate the consumption demand of the residents and promote the rapid development of the dairy industry.The development of the dairy industry ensures the effective supply of dairy products and thus increases the consumption of dairy products.However,the income level of urban residents in different regions of China is quite different,resulting in the unbalanced development of consumption demand for dairy products.It is of great practical significance to study the influence of income on the dairy consumption of urban residents and the regional differences.In this paper,first of all,under the background of dairy consumption,this paper puts forward the research issues and reviews the relevant research literature,analyzes the general situation and development trend of dairy consumption of Chinese urban residents,and finds that income is the main factor affecting dairy consumption.Based on the theory of income consumption,this paper analyzes the mechanism of income on dairy consumption,and finds out that the increase of income level can significantly promote the growth of dairy consumption.The income of urban residents among different regions leads directly to the difference of dairy consumption.Then the paper studies the influence of income on dairy consumption of urban residents and regional differences through empirical analysis from the national and regional levels.In the analysis at the national level,the data on the per capita disposable income of urban residents and dairy consumption expenditure of the whole country from 2001 to 2015 were used,and the co-integration test and Granger causality test were adopted.It is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium co-integration relationship between income and dairy consumption,and the former is the one-way Granger cause of the latter,and then the error correction ECM)model is established to further study of the dynamic relationship.The results show that the short-term fluctuation of dairy consumption can be divided into two parts: one is the impact of income,In the short term,for every 1% increase in per capita disposable income of urban residents,dairy consumption increases by 0.7402%;the other part is the effect of deviating from the long-term equilibrium,The system will pull the unbalanced state back to the equilibrium state with the adjustment of-0.8435)when short-term fluctuations deviate from long-term equilibrium.At the regional level,30 provinces and cities from 2001 to 2015 will be used in the analysis.The panel data on the per capita disposable income and dairy consumption expenditure of urban residents in the autonomous region(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Chongqing),with the introduction of urbanization and GDP per capita as control variables,are used to determine the eastern part of the region through the panel data covariance test and the Horsmann test.In the central and western regions,the variable co-efficient model of random effect is used,and then the panel data of different regions are regressed.It is found that there are obvious regional differences in the promotion effect of the per capita disposable income of urban residents on dairy consumption.And the regional economic development in China is unbalanced,resulting in a large income gap.It also has an important influence on the consumption of dairy products.Through the analysis of the research conclusions,the author puts forward reasonable and targeted policy suggestions to promote the healthy and stable development of the dairy industry and dairy consumption in China.