Research On The Paths Of Agricultural Supply Side Structural Reform In Anhui Province

At the Central Economic work Conference at the end of 2015,General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that while expanding aggregate demand moderately,efforts should be made to strengthen the supply-side structural reform,improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system,and enhance the impetus for sustained economic growth.It was the first time for the agricultural supply-side structural reform to be proposed.The first document of the Central Committee in 2016 put forward the strategic idea of "pushing forward the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture",and clearly defined the five major tasks of "cutting overcapacity,de-stocking,de-leveraging,reducing costs and making up for shortcomings".In 2017,the central government issued a special document on the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture,proposing to vigorously promote the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture,to solve the new difficulties in the development of agriculture,rural areas and farmers,to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture,and to promote a sustained and rapid increase in farmers' income.Anhui Province,as one of the main grain producing areas,its total grain output reached5.55% of the whole country in 2016 and the cultivated land area accounted for 4.35%of the total cultivated land area of the country.In general,its agricultural development situation is good.However,the level of agricultural development in Anhui Province is not high,with an extensive mode of agricultural management,an unreasonable agricultural structure and so on,as a result,the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture has a long way to go.Therefore,in 2016,the CPC Anhui Provincial Committee and the people's Government of Anhui Province issued their views on implementing the new concept of developing agriculture,accelerating the modernization of agriculture,and achieving the goal of an overall well-off society,which put optimizing the structure of agricultural production,promoting the coordination of grain,economy and feed,and combining agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry with fisheries,integrating the first,the second,and the third industries as key works in Anhui Province.In 2017,Anhui Province issued the "opinions on the implementation of the CPC Anhui Provincial Committee and the people's Government of Anhui Province on deepening the structural Reform on the supply side of Agriculture and speeding up the cultivation of New Kinetic Energy for Agricultural Rural Development".A series of policy recommendations focusing on optimizing thestructure of agricultural products,increasing the effective supply of products and promoting the improvement of agricultural quality and efficiency were put forward.It can be seen that agricultural supply-side structural reform plays an important role in the process of agricultural modernization in Anhui Province.Therefore,it is necessary to choose the paths of agricultural supply-side structural reform in Anhui Province.On the basis of relevant theoretical analysis,the paper analyzes the current situation of agricultural development in Anhui Province,thus combing out the basic contradictions and difficulties in the process of agricultural supply-side structural reform in Anhui Province.This paper analyzes the feasibility of agricultural structure,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery structure and planting structure in Anhui Province by using multiple regression and grey correlation method,and forecasts the proportion of production value of planting and animal husbandry in Anhui Province in the next five years by using ARMA prediction model.On this base,the paper puts forward the relevant paths of agricultural supply-side structural reform,which makes the path more operable.