An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Population Aging On The Demand For Long-term Care Commercial Insurance

The aging of China's population is becoming increasingly serious.The government has realized that the long-term care insurance system is important for responding to the aging of the population.The academic community has reached a consensus on the necessity of establishing this system and believes that the system is one of the effective ways for China to deal with population aging.However,while China is exploring and developing its long-term care insurance system,it faces severe problems.On the one hand,the current source of funding for China's long-term care insurance public expenditure has been tight.On the other hand,commercial long-term care insurance,which is another important source of long-term care insurance,has not developed,which will affect the long-term care of the elderly and the construction of a harmonious society.This article focuses on the following issues:(1)systematic analysis of how increasing population ageing will affect the demand for long-term care commercial insurance;(2)using Shanghai as an example to empirically analyze the impact of population aging on the demand for long-term care commercial insurance,and(3)The international experience in the development of long-term care commercial insurance and the policy recommendations for the development of long-term care commercial insurance.Through the in-depth digging of the correlation between the direct consequences of population aging and the direct factors affecting the long-term care business insurance demand,this paper proposes five propositions.First,the increase in the number of elderly persons with disabilities associated with aging will brought an increase in the demand for long-term commercial insurance;Second,the aging of population has impacted labor supply and weakened home care functions,which will increase the demand for nursing care;and third,the population aging affects the long-term care commercial insurance market's matures,and increases the effective demand.Fourth,the increase in labor costs and health care burdens caused by the aging of the population will bring an increase in the demand for long-term care commercial insurance.Fifth,the aging of the population has led to higher pressure for pension payments.It is difficult for the social security fund to satisfy the demand for long-term care,which will increase the demand for commercial insurance.Then,this paper uses Shanghai as an example to conduct statistical analysis,and empirically tests the theoretical logic of the five propositions.Empirical research results show that the aging of the population affects the increase in demand for long-term care commercial insurance from five major latitudes.Then based on the prediction of the population aging trend in Shanghai and the analysis of the government's possible burden on the future long-term care costs,this paper calculates the potential of long-term care commercial insurance demand in 2018-2030.The results show that the government's maximum public expenditure for long-term care does not meet the needs of all people in Shanghai for long-term care insurance.If insurance companies can make actuarial cost estimations and calculations,the development of long-term care commercial insurance will have greater profits.At the same time,it can also help improve China's long-term care security system.This paper draws on international experience and puts forward three policy recommendations:First,improve the actuarial model and risk control of long-term care commercial insurance under the trend of aging,and design a long-term care commercial insurance with reasonable prices.Second,develop corresponding product development strategies for people of different age groups,focus on certain groups of people,and improve the design of policy terms.Third,set up a system of China's disability judgments and classifications,improve the beneficiary review mechanism for long-term insurance,and develop professional identification organizations.The article is organized as follows:The full text is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is the introduction;Chapter 2 is a literature review,introduces the relevant concepts and theories involved in the article.The methods and research progresses and conclusions of the domestic and foreign literatures were introduced and reviewed.The third chapter of the mechanism analysis discussed how the aging population trend has impacted the demand for long-term care commercial insurance;The chapter IV of empirical research takes the data of Shanghai as an example,empirically examines the theoretical analysis of this article,and measures the demand potential of long-term care commercial insurance.The fifth chapter proposes the policy recommendations for the development of long-term care commercial insurance based on the research conclusions of this article and the international experience that Shanghai can learn from.