A Study On The Impact Of Changes In Shanghai's Population Development On Housing Demand

Since ancient times,housing has become the basic guarantee for the survival and development of every resident.With the improvement of people’s living standard,housing has become more and more meaningful to people’s life and development.Since 1978,China’s housing reform system has achieved remarkable results,which has greatly improved the housing level of our residents.However,the current supply of housing often fails to meet the housing demand of the population,and there is a large gap in the supply of housing,and the housing difficulty group has not enjoyed the welfare of low-income housing.These problems are not conducive to the solution of China’s housing problems,also have negative effects on economic development and social progress.Therefore,the importance and necessity of studying housing demand from the perspective of population development are especially prominent.In this paper,through theoretical analysis and quantitative research methods,with the Shanghai population and housing in 2000-2015 time series data for the data support,SPSS21.0 has been used to the linear regression analysis(OLS estimates).The independent variables are Total population,children’s dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio,worth of family scale,the population average by education years,married,the second industry employed population,the third industry employed population,urbanization rate,the proportion of the floating population.The dependent variable is housing demand.A comprehensive model of population size,population age structure,population structure,population structure,population and housing is obtained.Through linear regression analysis,we can found that first,the population growth is the basis of housing demand growth,sub-replacement fertility has become the accelerator to promote the growth of housing demand further,and the aging of the population intensified can inhibit the increase of demand for housing;Secondly,the proportion of married people is positively related to housing demand,and the tertiary industry has become an important force driving the increase of housing demand.Thirdly,in the case of other conditions,the future housing demand of Shanghai may be less affected by family size.Fourthly,the increase of urbanization rate promotes the growth of housing demand,and the impact of floating population on housing demand is not significant.Based on the model of population and housing demand and the calculation of the future population situation,the housing demand of Shanghai will be predicted from 2018 to 2030.Combined with the future housing supply,we can find that the supply quantity of commercial housing and affordable housing in Shanghai is in a gap,and the development trend of supply shortage will be presented.This paper puts forward the "five-dimensional development model" of the coordinated development of population and housing.By appropriate controlling population scale,optimizing the spatial distribution of population and housing,developing housing rental market,perfecting the system of affordable housing development and the establishment of specialized agencies,speeding the construction of laws and regulations,we can promote stable and orderly operation of the Shanghai’s housing market,in order to achieve the sustainable development of population and housing.