The Research On Changes And Impact Factors Of Import Trade Of Russian Agricultural Products

Agriculture,as an important part of the world economy,occupies an important position in human life.Agriculture plays an important role in Russia’s economic and trade system.After the collapse of the Soviet union,Russia there is an obvious decline in agricultural productivity,because most of the domestic agricultural production,farm became except Russia’s the property of the former Soviet republic.In 1991-1998 is the agricultural and food sector is the most difficult period,the period of Russia to the agricultural products and imported food has a strong dependence,work is reduced,the quality of life is reduced,the number of workers engaged in agriculture more than halved.At the beginning of the 21st century,Russia’s economy accelerated and agricultural production capacity increased.Despite a remarkable recovery in Russia’s agricultural sector,there are still shortages of many agricultural products.This phenomenon has been improved by imports of agricultural products.According to 2008 figures,Russian production is high for many types of food.After 2008,however,the dynamics of agricultural production began to become unstable.The level of self-sufficiency in basic foods has declined and imports have increased.The government found that Russia’s increasing dependence on imported agricultural products,which contain the food security problem,so the Russian government to practice the import substitution strategy in the field of agriculture,to speed up the self-sufficiency in agricultural production.In recent years,the political events in Russia have had a great impact on Russia’s foreign trade scale and regional structure,but this event has accelerated the process of domestic production of Russian agricultural products.In August 2014,the Russian federation to the European Union,the United States,Canada,Norway and Australia’s agricultural imports the implementation of the sanctions,its sanctions against reality significance is to speed up the process of the implementation of import substitution strategy in the agriculture,which makes the food safety issue is a certain degree of ease in Russia.But I’m afraid the impact will not last.Considering the complexity of the problem,in order to facilitate the successful implementation of the agricultural import substitution strategy for 2014-2016,the Russian federal government has formulated various plans to promote the development of agricultural production.However,according to experts,the overall situation of Russian agriculture in 2016 is not optimistic.Despite Russia’s domestic agricultural production has a rising trend,but the yield increase rate is not high,the Russian agricultural production cannot meet domestic demand,a variety of factors hampering the Russian agricultural production,therefore,in recent years,Russia’s dependence on imported agricultural products is still larger.Currently Russia’s political and economic instability continues to strengthen,so further study of the Russian agricultural products import trade present situation and development prospect of the whole economic development is of great significance to Russia.This article first introduced the Russia agricultural trade country’s size,trade structure and product structure,and extract the main factors influencing the Russian agricultural products import trade,including agricultural products price,quality,exchange rate,GDP,trade barriers and political several factors,and expounds the mechanism of influence of these factors and typical facts.On the basis of the above,to burn the substitution import demand model,adopt the method of empirical analysis,using import demand model testing the influence factors on the influence degree of the agricultural product import demand in Russia,which influence factors on the influence of the Russian agricultural imports is significant,and Russian agricultural products import trade prospects for the future.Based on the above background,this paper is of great significance to the study of Russian agricultural products import.This paper through literature method,the qualitative and quantitative or normative and empirical analysis,analyses the changes and influence factors of Russian agricultural products import trade,agricultural production and the status quo of the import substitution strategy,Russia Russian import trade status of agricultural products,agricultural products import trade,the country and the commodity structure and the various factors influencing the Russian agricultural imports.This thesis is divided into five chapters:the first chapter includes the introduction;Research background and significance;An overview of Russian and foreign studies;Structure and research methods;The innovation and deficiency of this topic.The second chapter is the theoretical basis and expatiates on the theory of foreign commodity demand estimation.The third chapter illustrates the Russian changes and influence factors of agricultural products import trade,import changes including Russia trade status of agricultural imports,Russia’s agricultural import trade structure change;The factors influencing the import trade of Russian agricultural products include:prices of agricultural products,quality,exchange rate,GDP,trade barriers and political factors.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis part,this part has chosen the Russian imports of agricultural products in the top 20 countries as sample,the time dimension is 1996-2016,using stata software panel data analysis,affecting the Russian agricultural products import trade volume and classification of various factors of agricultural imports are analyzed respectively,the results show that the per capita gross national product(GNP),the domestic agricultural prices index,domestic agricultural pesticides in Russia has a positive impact the import of agricultural products,foreign agricultural products price index,foreign agricultural pesticides,foreign currency exchange rate changes,tariffs,economic sanctions,geographic distance of Russian agricultural import has a negative impact;The classification study shows that there is greater import demand elasticity for animal and animal products.On the basis of the above regression analysis,the prospects of Russian agricultural import trade are further predicted.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion,which mainly summarizes the research results and puts forward corresponding policy Suggestions to the Russian government.The innovation of this paper is that both the research perspective and the research methods are innovative.The paper uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the substitution problem of Russian agricultural product import and domestic production,and describes in detail the change situation and influencing factors of Russia’s demand for foreign agricultural products.Compared with the existing literature,there have been breakthroughs in the selection of variables and the classification of agricultural products.This study has some reference and reference for the development of Russian agricultural import trade policy.