The Analysis Of Factors Affecting Success And Failure Of Crowdfunding Project Fin

As an emerging Internet financing method,crowdfunding has the characteristics of high efficiency,low cost,diversity of returns and small investment,so it is pursued by the majority of project sponsors and investors.In 2011,China's first crowdfunding platform was listed.After two years of stagnation,China's crowdfunding industry developed rapidly at the end of 2013,and now it has become a popular financing method.As an emerging financing method,crowdfunding provides a new and convenient way for SMEs and entrepreneurs to complete specific product or service financing,but at the same time we should clearly recognize the financing channels.Further enrichment only raises the possibility of a new financing for entrepreneurs and SMEs.How to successfully raise funds for crowdfunding projects is the subject of further research.Based on the actual crowdfunding project data,this paper will deeply analyze the indicators that have a significant impact on the success or failure of China's crowdfunding projects,and provide an important basis for the research and analysis of the factors affecting the success or failure of crowdfunding projects in China.This article uses python crawler technology to obtain data from crowdfunding network.Because the crowdfunding website only retains successful financing projects,in order to obtain project data of all financing results,this article climbs the latest financing status of crowdfunding projects from August 2018 to December 2018,and finally obtains 302 project data.After culling the unavailable data,333 copies of the valid data are obtained.Among them,287 test set data,including 107 successful financing projects and 180 financing failed projects.A total of 17 relevant indicators were crawled.According to the characteristics of the project and related research,11 indicators were selected into the impact analysis model construction,and finally the six significant variables were selected into the optimal model.This paper selects the logistic regression model to model and analyze the two classification problems of financing success or failure,and finally obtains the following conclusions:(1)Among the projects initiated in the second half of 2018,agricultural crowdfunding projects accounted for the largest proportion,and the highest financing success rate was public welfare crowdfunding projects;(2)Crowdfunding projects with better industry prospects and less risk are more likely to be trusted by project investors and have higher financing success rates;(3)The selected indicators have a significant impact on the financing results,the amount of support received by the project,the target financing amount,the time to send the return after the financing is successful,the number of pictures added,whether to add video;(4)The target financing amount set by the crowdfunding project has a significant negative impact on the results,reflecting the characteristics of microfinance of crowdfunding projects;(5)The project image of the crowdfunding project application also significantly affects the crowdfunding results,reflecting the important role of the project image in the crowdfunding project financing process.In order to test the practicability of the model in crowdfunding project analysis,the data test set is extracted to test the prediction results of the model.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the logistic regression ? project test set is 80.43%,indicating that the model prediction effect is better.Finally,the SVM support vector machine model and the random forest model are used to construct the corresponding model and forecast the project financing results.The prediction accuracy of the logistic regression model is compared.The prediction accuracy of the logistics model is found to be the best,which indicates the rationality of the model.The article concludes with recommendations for improving the success rate of crowdfunding projects.