Study On The Scale Of Agricultural Land Non-agriculturalization Based On Space And Its Influencing Factors

After the reform and opening-up,the urbanization rate of our country has been increasing rapidly,increasing by more than 40% in the past 40 years,and the cultivated land will inevitably be occupied in the process of urban expansion.Before 2008,the cultivated land area of our country reduced every year is equivalent to 10 ordinary districts and counties.The controversy about occupying agricultural land to develop economy and protect cultivated land to maintain food and clothing has been protracted.As the key to agricultural land conversion,the influencing factors of transfer scale,the spatial distribution of transfer scale and the mechanism of influencing factors are all the important basis for relevant government decision-making departments to formulate Macro-land policies and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.Through reviewing the relevant literature,the author found that most scholars focused on the economic driving factors of agricultural land conversion.Most of the research methods were based on the general linear regression model,but neglected the spatial heterogeneity of agricultural land conversion scale and the spatial role of each influencing factor.In order to study the scale of farmland conversion and its influencing factors,based on the combustion theory model and referring to the relevant literature in the field of farmland conversion,this paper combs the influencing factors of farmland conversion comprehensively,and obtains nine influencing factors.By eliminating the multiple collinearity effects,five factors of farmland conversion are finally obtained.Grass-roots explanatory factors of circulation.In empirical research,this paper chooses 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2015 as the research object,establishes an econometric model of farmland conversion in the past 11 years,and carries out exploratory spatial data analysis on the scale of farmland conversion in the study area by using GIS technology to describe the scale of agricultural land conversion.Then the spatial distribution characteristics are calculated and analyzed by using the common panel model and the spatial Durbin model.It is found that the scale of agricultural land conversion in the region is basically low in the West and high in the east,low in the West and high in the east,high in the South and high in the south,and higher in the South than in the north.In the 11 years,the Moran's I index of average turnover scale was 0.545990,showing significant spatial autocorrelation.Secondly,the influence factors selected by combustion theory can explain the change of farmland conversion scale in the study area.Urbanization level,transaction price of state-owned land,land comparative income and grain yield all have positive effects on farmland conversion scale,and the urbanization level among provinces has spillover effect.Finally,according to the results of the analysis,this paper makes planning suggestions from four aspects of influencing factors,combined with the different conditions of the provinces,puts forward relevant solutions to local conditions,and provides a scientific basis for the government and relevant departments to formulate targeted control measures and reasonable control of the land market.