| Due to the characteristics of real estate projects,real estate investment is a one-time and irreversible process.In the whole process,amounts of resources are consumed,thetime period is long,and there are many people involved,which have an important impact on the national economy and people’s livelihood.Therefore,investors need to study the investment environment in depth inorder to make correct investment behavior,avoid significant waste of resources and loss of national economy.The government needs to take measures to improve the urban real estate investment environment for attracting investment from realestate enterprises,promote economic development and people’s livelihood,and ensure the urbanization healthy and orderly.On the relevant basis of urban real estate investment environment comprehensive evaluation research,the paper evaluates the research object from the two-dimensions of actual situation and expected situation.Firstly,the basic content,principles,methods and process of the comprehensive evaluation index system are summarized.Based on this theoretical framework,selecting the evaluation indicators from the existing research literature and experts interviews initially;the selection indicators are optimized through qualitative analysis,and then the cluster analysis method is used to screen and classify the indicators,and the evaluation index system is structured;then use PCA to weight the indicators and calculate the comprehensive evaluation value,analyze the objectivity of the output results,and improve and establish the evaluation index system.Secondly,taking the paneldata of 28 prefecture-level and above cities in the southwest region from 2012 to 2017 as an example,using the dynamic evaluation method—time-series multi-index comprehensive evaluation method to study the situation ofreal estate investment environment in this period(actual situation research),using Stepwise regression to estimate the city’s "theoretical house prices" to study the future development of the real estate investment environment(expected situation research).Finally,combining the research results of two dimensions to establish a two-dimensional evaluation model of “actual situation and expected situation”.According to the difference ofevaluationresults,the city is divided into the following four types of areas: both of actual situation and expected situation are good,either of actual situation and expected situation is good,neither of actual situation and expected situation are good,and countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from the perspective of the government and investorsrespectively.Through the above research and analysis,the paper expounds the research results in the conclusion.The results show that,first,the development of real estate in the southwestern region is not balanced,and the comprehensive level of some cities and its urban real estate development level do not match.Second,the southwestern region has a poor composition of urban real estate investment environment,which is represented by “small waist triangle” structure with “large base and small top”.Third,the theory of comprehensive evaluation system is scientific and effective.The research results show that the system can objectively and truly describe the urban real estate investment environment.Constructing a simple and efficient comprehensive evaluation system and two-dimensional evaluation model will help the government and investors to fully understand the actual situation and potential value of the urban real estate investment environment.It helps investors to choose suitable cities for investment to avoid investment risks;it also helps the government to improve the urban real estate investment environment inorderto attract investment,develop the economy,promote people’s livelihood,and improve the level of urbanization. |
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