Research On Liquidity Risk Management Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation And Random Forest Model

In November 2016,LeTV reported that the funding chain was tight,and the default of the supplier's payment was aroused.As of the end of 2018,LeTV's operating income was 1.558 billion yuan,the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 4.096 billion yuan,and the net assets attributable to shareholders of the parent company were only-3.026 billion yuan.The company faces the risk of delisting.LeTV was ahead of other similar video websites listed on the China GEM in 2010,and the stock price soared to become a leading enterprise on the GEM.However,this is a company that has been favored by the public.Since 2016,LeTV Mobile has defaulted on its suppliers' accounts payable.Fell,and even bankruptcy liquidation and other events.The reason is largely due to the blind expansion of the capital chain and the current situation.In recent years,there have been reports of Internet company bosses "running",suicide,corporate bankruptcy,and bankruptcy.The Internet has frequently caused corporate bankruptcies due to liquidity risks.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the management of liquidity risk.This article selects LeTV as a case company,and analyzes the liquidity risk of the case company from three dimensions,namely,source of funds,use of funds,return of funds,that is,financing,investment operations,and return of funds.Further analyzing the loopholes in its liquidity risk management,the analysis found that LeTV 's entire funding chain was broken due to blind expansion,low return on investment,and a large amount of liquidity.In addition,the negative news of LeTV 's tight liquidity came out This led to LeTV 's difficulty in raising funds and problems with capital inflows.At the same time,LeTV 's large amount of receivables could not be recovered,which caused problems in returning funds,which ultimately led to LeTV 's financial crisis.Then evaluate the liquidity risk of LeTV.com through the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The evaluation results found that LeTV 's overall liquidity risk assessment results from 2014 to 2015 were low and medium risk,and the 2016 liquidity risk assessment results were medium risk.The 2017-2018 assessment results are high risk.Because fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method has a certain lag,a liquidity risk early-warning model is built on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The prediction result of the early warning model is that LeTV 's liquidity risk levels in 2016-1018 are all unsafe.Finally,suggestions for improving the liquidity risk management of case companies are put forward.In this way,the company can provide experience for the company to strengthen risk awareness and improve risk management.