Research On The Influence Of Trade Facilitation On The Diversification Of Export Varieties Of Chinese Agricultural Products

Since the 21 st century,global trade frictions have frequently occurred.The Asian financial crisis and trade disputes between China and US have further exacerbated the turbulence in the world economic and trade situation.When facing adverse external shocks,Chinese agricultural exports have exposed their own vulnerability and the instability is also accompanied by the deterioration of the “net trade conditions”.The new trade theory and related research believe that exporting more varieties of agricultural products can solve this dilemma.At the same time,traditional trade barriers represented by tariffs have gradually shifted to “hidden” barriers in institutional processes,and have become another important factor restricting the development of global trade.Organizations such as the WTO have put forward the idea of trade facilitation in order to reduce the “inefficient items” in institutional processes,and this thing has got positive response from all countries.The Ministry of Agriculture of China issued the “Vision and Actions to Promote Agricultural Cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative” in May 2017.The document clearly stated that deepening international agricultural cooperation needs to promote the development of trade facilitation.In this context,clarifying the impact of trade facilitation on the diversification of Chinese agricultural product exports will not only significantly promote the implementation of relevant policy provisions,but will also be conducive to the continued and steady “going out” of Chinese agricultural products.Based on the literature review of the factors affecting the diversification of export product types and the role of trade facilitation,this paper combines the new and new trade theory to build a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of trade facilitation on export product varieties.Secondly,using the quartile agricultural product export data from 2008 to 2017,a number of indicators were used to describe and compare Chinese overall and sub-industry agricultural product export diversification levels,trends and structure in 35 important regions.Next,a multi-indicator system was constructed,and the level of trade facilitation in each sample region was measured and analyzed by a relatively novel dynamic factor method.Finally,through panel negative binomial regression and PPML estimation empirical analysis of the impact of trade facilitation in important regions on Chinese overall and sub-industry agricultural product varieties export diversification in 2008-2017,combined with the theoretical framework,the reasons for the differences in results between different industries were discussed from the perspective of product substitution elasticity.Based on the conclusions,the corresponding policy enlightenment is obtained.The results of the study found that:(1)The theoretical analysis framework believes that trade facilitation promotes varieties in the export of agricultural products by reducing the fixed export cost,and predicts that the impact of trade facilitation in different industries is related to the elasticity of product substitution,which is specifically reflected in the overall elasticity of substitution in the industry.The impact of trade facilitation is greater with low elasticity of product substitution,and vice versa;(2)From 2008 to 2017,the degree of diversification of the varieties of agricultural products exported by China to important countries or regions increased slightly,the degree of species dispersion increased slightly,and the overall structure was optimized;(3)Chinese agricultural products exported to important countries or regions have the most diversified types of horticultural products,and they are also the industries with the largest number of export types.The oil product industry and the agricultural and animal industries have a high concentration of export types.From the trend,the export of aquatic products increased significantly,while cereal products and agricultural and livestock products declined more rapidly;(4)The level of Chinese trade facilitation is only slightly higher than the average level of the entire sample,and there is still a lot of room for improvement.During the sample period,it has a fluctuation characteristic that first rises,then decreases and at last rises;(5)The level of trade facilitation in importing countries has significantly promoted the level of diversification of Chinese agricultural product varieties exports,which can both promote the export types and the diversification of export types.This conclusion is not affected by endogenousness;(6)The level of trade facilitation in importing countries has significantly promoted the diversification level of Chinese grain industry,oilseed industry,and agricultural and livestock industries.However,it has no significant impact on the horticultural industry and aquaculture.High substitution elasticity has a lower impact,which is basically consistent with the prediction of the analysis framework.The research in this paper is of general significance for optimizing Chinese agricultural product industrial structure and overall improvement of agricultural openness.