Research On The Spillover Effect Of Real Estate Regulation And Control Policies In Major Cities Around Changchun

Housing has always been a top priority for people's livelihood.In recent years,the central government has introduced various real estate regulation measures to curb the excessively rapid rise of housing prices and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.The central government has been implementing various financial,monetary and land policies to regulate market prices.However,the higher the housing price,the less effective the macro-control policy is.In 2011,China issued the "strictest regulation"--purchase restriction order,and from 2011 to 2014,purchase restriction order began to be unshackled in a wide range of regions.Meanwhile,the guiding ideology of "city-based policies" was put forward for the first time,which also indicated that China's real estate regulation policy gradually tends to be controlled by local governments from the perspective of macro-control.Since 2011,the policy differentiation between regions has been obvious.With the strengthening of the linkage effect between cities,the spillover effect brought by the regional policy differentiation may be more profound.Due to the regional agglomeration effect,Changchun and the major cities around Changchun are closely linked.When the real estate regulation policies in the cities around Changchun are issued,the real estate market in Changchun will also change,that is,the real estate regulation policies will have an spillover effect between regions.Discussing the impact of the spillover effect of interregional policies,combined with system theory,and analyzing the transmission path of real estate regulation and control policies,can clearly show the occurrence and results of local policy spillovers.First,combined with the literature research on the externality of public policy and the path of real estate regulation and control policies,the mechanism of the spillover effect of local real estate regulation and control policies was analyzed.Second,according to the relevant factors of the commercial housing market,the system dynamics method was used to form subsystems from basic Construct a causal feedback loop in both aspects and influencing factors,analyze the feedback relationship between various factors,and according to the intermediate instrument variables of different real estate regulation policies,add the policy regulation path to the commercial housing market system,and construct real estate regulation policies in major cities around Changchun System dynamics model of spillover effect.According to the historical data of real estate in Changchun City from 2010 to 2019 and relevant real estate regulation and control policy documents of major cities in Northeast China,as well as the differentiated policies of Changchun and surrounding "adjacent" cities since 2010,the corresponding policy intensity indicators and The policy spillover path uses Vensim software to simulate the commercial housing market in Changchun from 2010 to 2019.The measurement of the spillover effect of real estate policies around Changchun can be achieved by adding or changing variables related to the policy spillover path.Finally,according to the control policy spillover results of the corresponding policy recommendations.The simulation study on the spillover effect of real estate regulation policies in changchun city can provide references for the government to make policies to guide the healthy development of the real estate market and Suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of the regional real estate market.