Study On Evaluation Model Of Project Bidding Opportunity Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory

The booming development of the socialist market economy and the construction project market has prompted changes in the market structure of traditional construction projects.The introduction of the bidding system broke the traditional contracting system for construction projects in China,and established a relatively complete market operation system for construction projects from design to construction.But this system gives construction unit decision makers a wide choice of space,but also makes decision makers face the problem of choosing between different construction project bidding.Mistakes in decision-making are likely to affect the benefits and social benefits of all parties to the project.Therefore,it is of great significance to improve the capacity of project evaluation and selection of decision makers in construction units in China.Based on the cumulative prospect theory,this paper introduces the psychological characteristics of decision makers’ "limited rationality" and "loss avoidance" into the multi-criteria risk-based decision-making problem,constructs a project bid opportunity evaluation model,and solves the problem of project bidding decision-makers choosing the most suitable project The question of bidding.By reviewing the existing relevant literature at home and abroad,the five first-level and 15 second-level evaluation indicators that are important for the project bidding decision are selected,and the indicators are weighted using the AHP method.For the construction of the evaluation method,the cumulative prospect theory that considers the risk preference of the decision maker is used,and the evaluation index value expected by the decision maker is used as the decision reference point,and the weight function and value function corresponding to the prospect of each index are calculated separately,and then combined with the evaluation index weight calculation The comprehensive prospect value of each program.The schemes are sorted according to the comprehensive prospect value of each scheme,so as to make the bidding decision and provide theoretical support for the proposal and optimization of the project bidding strategy.Finally,five cases verify the feasibility and rationality of the evaluation model.This study theoretically enriches the theory and method application in the field of project bidding decision-making to a certain extent;on the other hand,it can provide a theoretical reference for project decision-makers in construction units when making project selections,and improve the project evaluation of China’s construction unit decision-makers Ability to promote the construction and development of China’s engineering projects.