| In light of conceptual and empirical problems encountered by hegemonic stability theory, this dissertation proposes that the impact of international politics on international trade cooperation can be better understood by seeing how change in the distribution of power over time affects a state's security outlook and perceptions of its future position in the international system. This study seeks to throw a bridge between two of the main research avenues in International Political Economy: study of the concept of absolute/relative gains and studies on the impact of the distribution of power on trade.; It is argued that the insecurity associated with sudden and non linear changes (critical points) in a great power's relative power cycle incites states to care about the distribution of gains from trade and thus reduces international trade openness. Regression analysis of the ratio of world production traded across borders from 1850 to 1960 supports the hypothesis that the greater the number of great powers experiencing a critical point at a given point in time, the lower the level of international trade openness, unless offset by high levels of alliance polarization.; The dissertation applies the theory to provide an historical interpretation of variations in international trade openness from 1860 to 1900. The historical analysis reveals that, in contrast to the period of openness from 1860 to 1884, the period of rising protectionism from 1885 to 1900 was associated with increased insecurity and misperceptions, as states tended to see protection as a way to ensure security in uncertain times. |
