Beijing’s Population Regulation Policy And Its Effect Evaluation

Since the reform and opening up,population control policy has always been an important part of the public policy of megacities in China.Beijing,as an important political center,economic center,cultural center and international communication center in China,the development trend of the migrant population is closely related to the social and economic development.In the past 40 years,the social and economic development situation and the development trend of migrant population in Beijing have been constantly changing,and the population control policies have been adjusted accordingly.The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the release of non-capital functions have brought the population control policies in Beijing into a new stage.Based on the above background,this paper combs the evolution of the population control policy,analyzes different stages of changes of migrant population.On the basis of that,this paper analyzes the quantitative relationship between the population control policy and migrant population in Beijing,through the vector autoregressive model,impulse response analysis and variance analysis,and evaluate the effect of the policies.According to the research and analysis,following results are obtained:(1)There is a significant Granger causality from Beijing population regulation policy to the scale of Beijing’s migrant population.Beijing’s population regulation policy and its lagging term help to explain the changes in the scale of Beijing’s migrant population;(2)In general,the population regulation policy in Beijing has a significant impact,and the policy has a time lag and short timeliness.In the first year,the policy has no obvious impact on the size of migrant population,and in the second years,it begins to show a negative impact,and then the impact began to weaken.The effect basically disappeared in the fifth year.(3)The contribution of population regulation policy to the size of migrant population in Beijing is significant.In the first two years,the contribution is not obvious.In the third year,the contribution increases significantly.After the fifth year,the contribution tends to stabilize at about 17%.At the same time,migrant population itself are the main reason for the impact of the scale of migrant population.The contribution of the impact gradually decreases over time.In the fifth year,the contribution tends to stable at about 82%.Besides,according to the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some suggestions to the population regulation policy of Beijing.