Analysis Of The Impact Of Industrial Upgrading On Population Mobility In Shandong Province

Along with the domestic economic development gradually into the high-quality stage,aiming at the problems of low output value of high-tech industries,high energy consumption and backward technology in existing traditional industries,Shandong Province puts forward and implements the innovation to replace old growth drivers with new ones,and industrial upgrading is the key of it.On the one hand,industrial upgrading is accompanied by technological change and structural adjustment,which changes the demand for labor force,squeezes out and absorbs labor force,and triggers the phenomenon of cross-regional flow of population.On the other hand,the industrial upgrading itself demands the matching of labor force with the new production structure,and the lack of suitable labor force will certainly hinder the industrial transformation and upgrading in the province,which will increase the development cost.In order to fully nderstaud the law of population flow in Shandong province and help the innovation to replace old growth drivers with new ones,it is necessary to analyze the situation of population flow in Shandong province and stud the influence of industrial upgrading on population flow in Shandong province.This thesis firstly analyzes the distribution of the mobile population in Shan-dong Province and conducts a descriptive analysis of the characteristics of the mobile population in Shandong Province in terms of reasons for mobility and edu-cation.using data from Shandong Statistical Yearbook,2000 and 2010 population census.It is found that the overall human capital level of the migrant population in Shandong Province is low;the reasons for inobility tend to be diversified.and social factors are gradually given more importance in mobility decisions.Further,this thesis uses micro deta from the national dynamic monitoring of the mobile population and data on the characteristirs of cities in Shandong province to study the impact of industrial upgrading,public services and other urban characteristics on population mobility in Shandong province using a con-ditional logit model based on the concept of technologic al complexity to measure urban industrial upgrading.Meanwhile,this thesis analyzes the impact of indus-trial upgrading on different individual labor flow decisions by adding(ross rerms to the model.The empirical study shows that there is a significant thrust of industrial up-grading,mainly manufacturing industries,on mobile individuals in Shandong province.That is,the greater the industrial industry upgrading,the lower the probability that mobile laborers choose to enter the city，controlling for other variables.An empirical analysis at the national level using data from the China Labor Force Dynamics Survey also confirms this finding.In addition,the hetero-geneity analysis reveals that there is individual heterogeneity in the influence of industrial upgrading on labor flow decisions in Shandong province,namely,there are differences in the responses of different mobile individuals facing industrial upgrading.Specifically,individuals with higher years of education tend to flow into areas with greater industrial upgrading compared to those with lower years of education;compared with the individuals who flowed into Shandong Province across provinces,the laborers who moved within the province were more inclined to flow into cities where industrial upgrading occurred.The nationwide empiri-cal analysis finds that older workers respond more to industrial upgrading than younger workers.Finally,based on the above research findings,this thesis puts forward relevant policy recommendations to promote the innovation to replace old growth drivers with new ones and the orderly promotion of industrial upgrading.