| People are the carrier of all economic activities,which directly affect the adjustment of regional resource allocation plans,the formulation of economic and population policies,and have an important impact on regional urban and rural planning,industrial layout,and ecological construction.As a typical arid and semi-arid region,population distribution is different from other provinces.Understanding the temporal variation and spatial distribution of population has an important impact on economic development and ecological construction.Based on the county population statistics data,administrative division data,DEM data,meteorological data,road data,per capita GDP data and output value data of secondary and tertiary industries in Xinjiang from 1990 to2017,the paper analyzed the temporal variation and spatial distribution of population in Xinjiang during 30 years with the methods of population density,population aggregation degree,spatial autocorrelation of population.And then,analyzed the influencing factors of population distribution in Xinjiang combined with the factors of topography,meteorological,transportation and economy data.(1)The time series variation of Xinjiang’s population from 1990 to 2017 showed that Xinjiang’s population changes generally appeared a stable growth trend,but the population growth rate appeared a downward trend.From 1990 to 2017,the population increased by 9.1551 million,and the population growth rate dropped by 6.76 percentage points.Uyghur had the largest proportion in number and its growth rate was the fastest.From 1990 to 2017,it increased by about 4,405,500 people,with an increase of 60.77%,and an average annual population growth rate of 1.77.The gap between urban and rural population ratio was characterized by shrinking,the urban population was increasing rapidly and the proportion was increasing,the rural population fluctuates slightly in steady changes.There are more men than women in the population,and the sex ratio decreased slightly in fluctuation,changed within the normal range,and tended to balance the development direction.(2)Judging from the spatial variation of population distribution,there were obvious differences in the spatial distribution of population in Xinjiang.Most counties and cities belong to densely populated areas and medium population areas,and densely populated areas are distributed around densely populated areas.Population gathering areas were formed with the Urumqi,Kuitun city,Yining city,Kashgar city and Hotan city as the centers.The temporal variation of population distribution from 1990 to 2017,the differences of population distribution in Xinjiang has not changed significantly.The population density increased from 0.14 to 0.17 per square kilometer during 30 years,and the coefficient of variation of population density remained at about 3.00.(3)From the perspective of population aggregation degree,the extremely sparsely populated areas and the sparsely populated areas are mainly distributed in the Taklimakan Desert,Gurbantonggut Desert and the southern alpine area,with about 80 counties and cities.The land area accounts for more than 95% in Xinjiang,and the population accounts for about 70%.The average population area,dense area and extremely dense area are mainly distributed in the piedmont plain area of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains,the Ili River Valley areas,and the oasis area formed by the Tarim River and its tributaries.There are about 15 counties and cities,the land areas were less than 5% of Xinjiang areas,but the population accounts for more than 30% in Xinjiang.(4)The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of population in Xinjiang has spatial agglomeration pattern,but its spatial correlation showed a weakening trend,Moran index decreased from 0.112 in 1990 to 0.099 in 2017.The spatial agglomeration state of regional population almost has no variation,only Kashgar city increased to high and low agglomeration in 2010,Yining city and Hotan city increased to high and low agglomeration in 2017.(5)The most obvious factors affecting the population distribution are terrain undulation,climate index and water resources.More than 60% of the population was distributed in the area with 1-2 topographic relief,and less than 0.2% of the population was distributed in the area with more than 6 topographic relief.The climate index of counties in Xinjiang ranged from 0.17 to 0.82,and the population tended to concentrate in the comfortable areas.The climate index of the areas with the most population distribution ranged from 0.3 to 0.6,the population in the cold and hot areas showed a decreasing trend.The annual precipitation of counties in Xinjiang ranged from 28.91 mm to 453.19 mm,with the spatial distribution characteristics of more in the northwest and less in the southeast.The annual precipitation in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and Yili Valley were significantly higher than that in other regions.There was a significant positive correlation between the amount of water resources and population in each prefecture,and the correlation coefficient was 0.47.The area with the largest amount of water resources was Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture.(6)Per capita GDP,traffic density,industrial structure,urban area and oasis area were important socio-economic factors that affect the spatial distribution of population in Xinjiang.Correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between population density and per capita GDP showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2017,indicated that the correlation between population distribution and per capita GDP had a weakening trend;There was a significant positive correlation between the population density and the road density(correlation coefficient was 0.86),the population density increased with the increase of the road density.Population density had certain correlation with the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries in the total output value of the region,the positive correlation between population density and the secondary industry had shifted into negative correlation,the negative correlation with the tertiary industry had shifted into positive correlation.There was a significant positive correlation between the county population and the built urban area and oasis area,the county population increased with the increase of built urban area and oasis area. |
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