Development And Influencing Factors Of Coupling Coordination Of Population-Economy-Environment In The Lower Yellow River

Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin will become a national strategy in 2019.This directive at the national level shows the importance the country attaches to high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.However,with the economic development of the Yellow River Basin,environmental and population problems have become more and more obvious constraints on economic development.Previously,due to extensive development and utilization,the ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin has become increasingly fragile.The era of economic growth at the expense of environment has passed.It is the only way to realize the high quality development of the Yellow River Basin to seek the coordinated development of economic growth and environment.Compared with the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River,the population base and density of Henan and Shandong provinces in the lower Reaches of the Yellow River are larger.Under the double pressure of population and environment,it is a more difficult task to achieve high-quality economic development in the lower reaches of the Yellow River.It can be seen from the existing literature that the environment,population and economy are closely related to each other,and the three affect each other.To properly handle the coordinated development of population,economy and environment in the lower Reaches of the Yellow River is an important way to achieve high-quality development in the lower reaches.This paper starts with the classical theory of coupling and coordinated development and makes theoretical analysis and mechanism analysis of this study.Secondly,15 cities in the lower Yellow River are selected as research objects,and 19 indicators are selected to construct the evaluation index system of the coupling coordination degree of population,economy and environment in the lower Yellow River.The coupling coordination degree of population,economy and environment in the lower Yellow River from 2010 to 2019 is measured and the spatio-temporal pattern is analyzed.Then the grey prediction GM（1,1）model is used to predict the coupling coordination degree in the following two years.On this basis,the panel Tobit model is established to explore the influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of population-economy-environment in the lower Yellow River.The results are as follows:（1）The coupling coordination degree of the lower Yellow River has improved significantly in the past ten years,and the cities in the lower Yellow River have entered the intermediate coordination state;（2）through the numerical simulation of the 2020 most cities will achieve good coordination state,some cities even reached the quality status and coordination;（3）The degree of openness and industrialization has a significant negative relationship with the coupling coordination degree of the lower Yellow River,while the level of education and science and technology has a significant positive relationship with the coupling coordination degree of the lower Yellow River.Therefore,cities in the lower Reaches of the Yellow River should strengthen policy implementation according to their own conditions,raise the entry threshold of foreign investment,adjust the industrial structure,increase investment in education,and improve the level of investment in science and technology.