Research On Risk Analysis And Evaluation Of Construction Period Of Navigation Support Infrastructure Projects

The development of the port economy is inseparable from the construction of maritime security infrastructure.Construction is the foundation of development and a guarantee to improve the capacity of maritime supervision and aviation insurance services.In recent years,China's maritime safety level has been continuously improved,and investment in construction of maritime security infrastructure projects has increased.Management of maritime security infrastructure projects needs to be further improved and strengthened.Maritime security infrastructure projects have unique requirements such as large scale,complex structure,many influencing factors,and diverse construction model choices.In this thesis,we will first study the status of factors affecting the project construction period,and the risk analysis methods.Based on a full understanding of the theory of marine security infrastructure projects,risks and project duration,and combining the characteristics of marine security infrastructure projects,a network diagram of typical marine security infrastructure projects has been established and improved.Use the PERT method to measure risks during the construction of marine support infrastructure projects.The disadvantages of traditional PERT method and some improvement methods are analyzed.This provides a feasible method for determining the overall risk of marine security infrastructure projects.Based on a comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the construction period of marine security infrastructure projects,expert questionnaires were used to determine the influencing factors of the construction period of marine security infrastructure projects,and a risk analysis model was established to compromise risk factors,providing a theoretical basis for future monitoring.Based on actual cases,detailed project risk factor analysis is performed,and expert evaluation method is used to verify project risk.Use project software to refine the project duration,and use @risk software to simulate the impact of risk factors on the duration.The combination of the proposed PERT risk measurement method and risk software to calculate the construction period risk and the verification examples provided an effective risk analysis and management tool for the construction of marine security infrastructure projects.