Research On China's Pension Model Under The Background Of Population Aging

The "family pension" model refers to a model that relies on children to provide financial support and life care for older parents,and the "social pension" model refers to the pension products and services provided by social insurance and social organizations in order to provide for the elderly.mode.On the basis of describe the status quo of chinese population aging and pension model,this article focuses on two issues: First,under the“family pension” model,will the number and gender of children affect the children's intergenerational support to their parents? Residence arrangements? The second is whether and to what extent "social pension" can replace the intergenerational transfer payment of children to parents?This article answers the above research questions by estimating econometric models.Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2018,this article estimates the effect of the number of children and their gender composition on support for the elderly.Using the fine rate and first-child twins as instrumental variables for the number of children,the regression results of the two-stage least squares method show that the increase in the number of children significantly increases intergenerational transfer payments received by parents and the probability of living with their children;There is a significant difference between the quantitative effect in rural and urban areas,and "raising children to prevent old age" mainly occurs in rural areas;there is also a heterogeneous effect on the gender of children.This means that the policy of encouraging childbirth can alleviate the pressure on the elderly and strengthen the supporting role of the "family pension" model.From the perspective of intergenerational transfer payments,this article also discusses the substitution effect of social pension insurance on the family pension model,and finds that the "new rural insurance" has a significant crowding-out effect on intergenerational transfer payments.The squeezed out intergenerational transfer payment accounts for 80.6% of pension income,which shows that the "social pension" model has a relatively high substitute for the "family pension".Based on the research conclusions,this article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.One is to deregulate birth control,improve the encouragement and support system for births,and at the same time increase investment in human capital to ensure the effective supply of human resources;the second is to improve the social security system for the elderly and increase economic support for low-income elderly in rural areas.Accelerate the coordination and connection of rural old-age security and urban social security systems;the third is to build a high-quality old-age service and product supply system.