The Driving Mechanism Analysis Of Energy Carbon Peak In Eight Comprehensive Economic Zones And Its Scenario Prediction

Alleviating global warming and reducing carbon dioxide emissions is a huge challenge for all countries in the world to develop the economic and social.As a country with the largest carbon emissions and energy consumption,it is inevitable for China to change the status quo of rapid economic development and achieve high-quality economic development.The proposal of the “double carbon” target not only reflects China’s responsibility as the second largest economy,but also is the inevitable requirement and fundamental way for China to achieve low-carbon economic development.Accurately measuring the influencing factors of China’s energy carbon emissions and predicting the future trend of China’s energy carbon emissions have great theoretical and practical reference value for the development of low carbon economy and the realization of the "double carbon" goal.The past experience of emission reduction shows that the imbalance of regional economic development and the difference of resource endowment will affect the implementation of China’s emission reduction policy,and the policy will be effective only in accordance with local conditions.Therefore,based on the regional differences of energy carbon emissions,from the perspective of eight comprehensive economic zones,this paper uses LMDI decomposition method to decompose the influencing factors of China’s energy carbon emissions,and then establishes STIRPAT energy carbon emission prediction model.Based on the current situation of economic and social development,scenario analysis is used to predict the future trend of China’s energy carbon emissions.We hope we can provide more effective policy suggestions for energy conservation and emission reduction,and help China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.The results show that:(1)Since the 21 st century,China’s energy carbon emissions have generally been on the rise,and the carbon emission intensity has been decreasing year by year.The correlation between China’s economic development and carbon emissions has gradually weakened.The energy carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the southwest region,the southern coastal region and the eastern coastal region are characterized by "low emissions-low intensity",the energy carbon emissions in the northeast and the Northwest region are characterized by "low emissions-high intensity",the energy carbon emissions in the northern coastal region and the middle reaches of the Yellow River are characterized by "high emissions-high intensity".(2)There are obvious regional differences in China’s energy carbon emissions.Both the overall and regional Theil index of energy carbon emissions intensity show a trend of "rising-declining-rising",while the inter-regional Theil index shows a trend of from almost constant to gradually rising.At the same time,inter-regional differences are the main reasons for regional differences in China’s energy carbon emissions.(3)Economic,population and technology impact on China’s energy carbon emissions.The effect of energy structure,effect of population scale,effect of economic growth and effect of energy intensity are the four factors that affect China’s energy carbon emissions.Among them,economic growth and population size play the main inhibiting role,energy intensity plays the promoting role,and the impact of energy structure effect on carbon emission is uncertain,but the impact degree is small.From the perspective of eight comprehensive economic zones,the impacts of various factors on energy carbon emissions are different,and each economic zone should adopt differentiated carbon emission reduction policies based on its own economic level and resource endowment.(4)China still faces enormous pressure to reduce emissions,according to the current situation of economic and social development.The middle of the Yellow River,northeast China and northwest China will not achieve the peak of energy carbon emissions by 2030.In the single path scenario,economic growth delays the peak of energy carbon emissions,and the northern coastal area has the greatest impact.The optimization of industrial structure and energy structure can shorten the time to peak carbon dioxide emissions.Due to the obvious difference of energy carbon emissions in each economic zone,adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure has different effects.The combination of industrial structure and energy structure is the best way to reach the peak of China’s energy carbon emissions.The joint adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure is the best way for China’s energy carbon emissions to peak.While maintaining stable economic and social growth,China will optimize the industrial structure and energy consumption structure comprehensively.Under the multi-prang approach,China will achieve the peak energy carbon emissions in 2021,with a peak value of 2.034 billion tons of standard coal.In order to accelerate the pace of carbon emission reduction and achieve the carbon emission target as soon as possible,we need to: strengthen energy demand management,enhance the awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction;optimize the energy supply structure to help enterprises transform and upgrade;innovate new low-carbon technologies to reduce energy consumption;adhere to the path of low-carbon development and promote coordinated development among regions.