Spatial Layout Optimization Of Elderly Care Service Facilities For "15-Minute Living Circle"

With the aging of the population and the insufficient ability of social services,the contradiction between urban residents’ demand for a better life and unbalanced,inadequate urban pension service facilities has become increasingly prominent.In cities with limited land use resources and high population density,how to allocate elderly care service facilities fairly according to the actual needs of the elderly,efficient use of limited space resources,balanced distribution,has become a highly concerned issue of all sectors of society.However,many studies on the layout of existing elderly care facilities are "heavy objects but light people",leading to unreasonable distribution and mismatch between supply and demand in the layout of facilities.Therefore,aiming at the "15-minute life circle" and starting from the actual needs of the elderly,this study constructs a precise and humanistic allocation method of pension facilities under the demand prediction,so as to improve the reasonable layout of urban pension facilities.This study has important practical significance for relieving the pressure of urban pension and improving the quality of life of the elderly.This study takes the main urban area of Zhengzhou City as an example.According to the elderly population data in 2020 and 2035,based on the elderly care needs of residents,starting from the construction of "15-minute life circle",The Gaussian two-step floating catchment area(Ga2SFCA)and Optimal Supply-demand Accessibility Method are adopted.OSD)analyzed and compared the spatial accessibility and coverage of elderly care facilities(including nursing homes and day care centers)in the main urban area of Zhengzhou,and identified areas with supply-demand imbalance.Gini coefficient,Lorentz curve and LISA analysis method were used to analyze the fairness of the spatial layout of facilities in the maintenance institute and identify the unbalanced area of facilities layout.The improved Capacitated maximum coverage location problem(CMCLP)was used to optimize the layout of elderly care facilities.The study found:(1)The number of existing maintenance hospitals is seriously insufficient and the space accessibility is poor.According to the accessibility results based on Ga2 SFCA,the elderly population without access accounted for 98.55%,and the elderly population with access to medium and above accounted for only 1.33%.The accessibility results based on OSD model show that only 1.65% of the elderly population can be covered within the 15-minute walking range,95.42% of the elderly population cannot be covered by facilities,and the average time for the elderly population to reach the facilities is 38.3 minutes.The existing facilities are far from meeting the needs of the elderly population in terms of both quantity and service scale.(2)In the planning scheme,the overall space accessibility of the conservation institute has been improved.According to the accessibility results based on Ga2 SFCA,the proportion of the elderly without access was 73.22%(25.33% lower than before the plan),and the proportion of the elderly with moderate or above accessibility was 21.38%(20.05% higher than before the plan).According to the accessibility results based on the OSD model,20.11%of the elderly population can be covered within the "15-minute life circle"(18.46% more than before the plan).The total facility service scale in the planning scheme can meet the total demand,so there is no inaccessible situation,and the average time to reach the facility is37.31 minutes,which exceeds the standard of 15 minutes.The spatial equity gap of facilities is large,and the areas with spatial dislocation are mainly concentrated in the southwest of Jinshui District and the northeast of Erqi District.(3)There is a gap between the number of existing day care centres and the needs of the elderly population.Based on the accessibility results of Ga2 SFCA,about half of the elderly population is inaccessible within 15 minutes of life circle,accounting for 59.18%.The elderly population with medium or above accessibility accounted for 36.90%;According to the accessibility measurement based on OSD model,only 7.38% of the elderly population can be covered within the 5-minute service range,and 18.36% within the 15-minute walking range.As high as 77.21% of the elderly population cannot get services,and the average time for the elderly population to reach the facilities is 9.06 minutes.(4)Using the improved CMCLP model,adding the consideration of radius grading and partial coverage,optimizing and adding the location of pension facilities can significantly improve the accessibility of pension facilities and reduce the accessibility differences between regions.After optimization,the coverage rate of the elderly population within the service range of "15-minute life circle" of the nursing home facilities was 56.67%,36.56% higher than that of the planning scheme,and the average arrival time was 18.14 minutes.The optimized day care center facilities can cover the entire elderly population,with 30.67% of the elderly population covered within the 5-minute service range and 77.21% covered within the 15-minute service range.The average arrival time was 11.89 minutes.Based on the concept of "15-minute life circle",this paper constructs a complete technical framework and optimization method for layout optimization of public service facilities.Based on the characteristics of the main urban area and the actual needs and living habits of the elderly,the optimal supply and demand distribution model is used to better reflect the spatial characteristics of the actual supply and demand relationship between facilities and population.Using the improved CMCLP model,considering the population density difference among different loops,selecting different service radius to optimize site selection,and constructing the efficient and balanced distribution optimization method of elderly care service facilities under the demand prediction.The actual needs and living habits of the elderly are often ignored in the research on the layout of the existing endowment facilities.In order to provide reference for further research on layout optimization of urban elderly care facilities.This study will provide reference for the spatial layout optimization decision of urban elderly care facility resources,and help promote the construction of urban "15-minute life circle".