Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Urban Housing Price

Population has always been the core element of a country’s economic development and the driving force of economic growth.After more than half a century of nearexponential population growth and the vigorous implementation of the family planning policy,The aging of China’s population has been deepening since the 21 st century,which makes the economy and society bear an increasingly heavy burden of support.The coordinated development of China’s population and economy and society is in a state of "getting old before getting rich".In addition,with the rapid urbanization process of China,the growing population of cities,the demand for housing housing is growing,especially since 1998 by the monetization of housing distribution reform,the market mechanism to achieve higher efficiency of housing resources allocation,further stimulated the housing needs of urban residents.Since 2009,the housing market has experienced rapid development,with the overall housing price in the city rising rapidly.At present,the population aging has become a challenging issue facing the global various countries or regions,especially for China such a populous country,population aging problem is increasingly highlighted,this will lead to rely on reform and opening up,relies on demographic dividend in constant disappeared,finally to the social and economic sustainable development and the housing market caused very big effect.Therefore,it is of great practical and policy significance to study the impact of population aging on housing prices.Firstly,this paper combs the relevant literature and theories at home and abroad on the relationship between population aging and housing price;Then,combined with the extended model of overlapping generations model and the perspective of labor supply and residents’ consumption,this paper expounds the mechanism of population aging affecting housing price;Then it analyzes the current situation of China’s population aging and the development of commercial housing market.On this basis,using the panel data of 287 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2005 to2018,this paper investigates the impact of population aging on urban housing prices by using panel fixed effect model,instrumental variable model,quantile regression and a series of robustness tests;In the heterogeneity analysis,this paper makes a grouping regression test according to the different geographical location of the city and the degree of labor marketization to investigate whether there are regional and labor market differences in the impact of population aging on urban house prices.At the same time,in order to verify the mechanism behind the relationship between population aging and urban house prices,this paper makes an empirical test on the mechanism of population aging affecting urban house prices.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,on average,with the deepening of population aging,urban house prices will be significantly inhibited.Under the condition that other variables remain unchanged,for every 10% increase in population aging,urban house prices fall by 11%,indicating that the deepening of population aging has significantly promoted the decline of urban house prices.In addition,this paper ensures the robustness and reliability of the research conclusion through a series of robustness tests,such as instrumental variable method,changing variables,using heteroscedasticity standard error,eliminating some samples and further controlling other relevant variables.Thirdly,this paper also uses the quantile regression method to investigate the impact of population aging in different segments on urban house prices.The effect of population aging on urban house prices has quantile heterogeneity.With the increase of urban house prices,the marginal inhibitory effect of population aging on urban house prices shows an increasing trend,but the impact of population aging on cities with low house prices is not obvious.Secondly,due to the differences in the geographical location of cities and the degree of labor marketization,this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of population aging on urban house prices.The study finds that population aging not only inhibits the housing prices of cities in the eastern region,but also inhibits the house prices of cities in the central and western regions,But this negative effect is stronger in the cities in the eastern region;The aging of population has an inhibitory effect on both housing prices in southern cities and housing prices in northern cities,but the inhibition is stronger in southern cities;The inhibitory effect of population aging on urban housing prices is only reflected in cities with low degree of labor market,and does not have a significant effect on urban housing prices with low degree of labor market.This means that the improvement of regional labor marketization can alleviate the negative effects of population aging.Thirdly,according to the analysis of the theoretical mechanism,this paper empirically tests the mechanism of population aging affecting urban house prices from three aspects: housing demand,residents’ consumption rate and labor supply.The study finds that population aging significantly reduces the demand for urban housing,and then promotes the decline of urban house prices;Population aging has significantly reduced the consumption of urban residents and the demand for urban housing consumption,resulting in the decline of house prices.This is mainly because population aging tends to reduce housing consumption expenditure and reduce housing prices through intergenerational wealth transfer and legacy motivation,weakened ability to resist risks and prevention motivation;The deepening of population aging will significantly reduce the urban labor supply through the exit effect,and the decline of labor supply or labor participation rate will further lead to the decline of housing demand,which may hinder economic development and weaken the driving force supporting the rise of house prices.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the aspects of constructing the old-age insurance system,tapping the consumption potential of the elderly population,improving the degree of labor marketization,continuing to increase human capital investment and coordinating regional development.