The Research On The Innovation Promotion Effect And Diffusion Logic Of The Cadre Fault-tolerant Mechanism

The cadre fault-tolerant mechanism(CFTM)is an important initiative proposed to promote reform and innovation.Although the national government has been increasingly vocal about CFTM,the spread of this policy in China has gradually slowed down in recent years.There are two reasons for this phenomenon: On the one hand,there is still no unified conclusion on the effect of CFTM,which makes some people too cautious to adopt CFTM.On the other hand,the diffusion of policy innovation has a plateau itself in the late stage,that is,it enters the tail of the S-shaped curve.For the reason that the innovation motivation of the remaining local governments themselves is weaker than that of the early adopters.To solve the above problems,the key is to study the innovation promotion effect and diffusion logic of CFTM.To analyze the effect on local government innovation and the diffusion logic of CFTM,the present study constructs research hypotheses and an analytical framework named "efficiency-legitimacy-actor framework" based on the public choice theory and policy innovation diffusion theory.Further,this study implements empirical analysis with event history analysis and machine learning predictive modeling methods,based on relevant data from Chinese cities.The results reveal that(1)the higher adoption degree of CFTM and the more policy attention is allocated to innovation,the more likely local governments will adopt government innovation;(2)the promotion effect of CFTM on local government innovation differs among regions with different economic conditions,which is stronger in undeveloped regions than in developed regions;(3)The diffusion of CFTM is mainly dominated by actor logic,and the influence of efficiency logic and legitimacy logic is relatively small;(4)Among the efficiency logic,legitimacy logic,and actor logic,the most influential features are governance scale,vertical pressure and tenure of the local leader,respectively.Among them,the governance scale has a negative effect,while vertical pressure and tenure of principal officials have a positive effect.Based on the above findings,to promote the sustainable development of CFTM,this paper suggests that local governments should encourage subordinates to establish improve CFTM,build a differentiated innovation guarantee system,strengthen the leadership-driven effect in the diffusion of CFTM,and scientifically plan the diffusion path of CFTM.