Optimisation Study Of Supply And Demand Balance Of Combined Medical And Nursing Care Services Based On System Dynamics

China’s population aging problem is getting more and more serious.According to the latest statistics,by the end of 2022,the number of people aged 65 and above in China has exceeded 209.78 million,accounting for 14.9% of the country’s total population,which makes China one of the countries with the most serious population aging problem in the world.As the global population aging continues to intensify,the number of elderly people has risen sharply,and the proportion of disabled and semi-disabled people among them is also climbing.According to data from the National Health Commission,by the end of2022,there will be 40 million disabled and semi-disabled elderly people aged 65 and above across the country,and there is a drastic increase in the demand of elderly people for healthcare-integrated elderly care services.However,the development of combined medical and nursing care services faces many problems,such as imperfect systems,low productivity,and generally poor service quality of professionals.In order to promote the development of combined medical and nursing care services,this paper,based on the data of China Civil Affairs Bureau,carries out the research on the supply and demand of combined medical and nursing care services based on the social background of aging and aging,and accelerates the effective supply of combined medical and nursing care services by expanding the financial expenditures on nursing care services to meet the demand for combined medical and nursing care services for the elderly groups.Firstly,the basic concepts of combined medical and nursing care services are elaborated,including the differences between combined medical and nursing care services in the community,combined medical and nursing care services in institutions,and combined medical and nursing care services in the home;secondly,the variables affecting the supply and demand system of combined medical and nursing care services are summarised at the level of the supply and demand of combined medical and nursing care services,and the linkages between the variables at the micro level are utilised,as well as the trends of the demand and supply of combined medical and nursing care services in the process of economic development.demand and supply of resources,to find out the operation mechanism of the balance of supply and demand of combined medical and nursing care services,and to construct its dynamic equilibrium model;again,to simulate the impact of the changes in the expenditure on nursing care services,the utilisation rate of nursing care beds,and the proportion of combined medical and nursing care institutions on the balance of supply and demand of combined medical and nursing care services in different scenarios;finally,to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for solving the problem of the balance of supply and demand of combined medical and nursing care services,in order to promote the development of combined medical and nursing care services.The results of the study show that in 2011-2030,the effective demand and effective supply of the combined medical and nursing home senior care service both show a linear growth trend,and despite the rapid growth of the effective supply,the effective supply is still far lower than the effective demand,so the supply-demand ratio has not been able to converge to 1,which indicates that the supply and demand of the combined medical and nursing home senior care service has been in an unbalanced state for a long period of time.The effective demand and effective supply of medical and nursing community home care services are both growing linearly,and the effective demand for medical and nursing community home care services is growing rapidly,while the effective supply is growing slowly,and the ratio of supply and demand tends to 1 around 2030,indicating that the supply and demand of medical and nursing community home care services will reach an equilibrium state around 2030.In addition,the ratio of supply and demand will also be affected by the financial expenditure on elderly care services,the utilisation rate of beds,and the proportion of medical and nursing institution.