Does Industrial Transfer Affect Population Agglomeration?

In recent years,with the shortage of land resources in the eastern coastal areas,the rising cost of employment and the policy tilt of the central and western regions,the relevant industries have shown a trend of transfer to the central and western regions,industrial transfer has led to the industrial structure,economic development level,employment opportunities and income levels of the industrial transfer and industrial undertakings,the return of labor from the eastern coast to the central and western regions,the population concentration in the central and western regions has increased.Industrial transfer drives the labor force flow,the phenomenon of population concentration is accidental,or there is a certain mechanism of action,industrial transfer in promoting the coordinated development of the region at the same time,can effectively alleviate the imbalance of China’s population distribution,these issues are worthy of further in-depth thinking and research.Based on this,based on the data of 283 cities and cities in China from 2005 to 2018,this thesis uses dynamic GMM model to test the relationship between second and third industry transfer and population agglomeration,construct the interaction between industrial transfer and per capita disposable income,analyze whether the second and third industry transfer can influence population aggregation by driving income increase,and test the heterogeneity of industrial transfer to population concentration according to different population sizes and urban cluster samples.The study found that:First,China’s rapid industrial development in2005-2018,industrial concentration from the northeast region to China’s eastern and southwestern regions of the trend,the increase in population concentration is mainly concentrated in the central and eastern coastal cities.Second,the transfer of the second and third industries has a significant positive effect on population aggregation,but the transfer of the secondary industry has a stronger effect on population aggregation than the impact of the transfer of the tertiary industry.In the mechanism test,the interaction coefficient between the second and third industries and per capita disposable income is significantly positive,indicating that the transfer of the second and third industries can drive population agglomeration through income factors.Third,in the heterogeneous analysis of population aggregation by industrial transfer,the second and third industry transfer of cities with a population size of more than50 million,300-5 million people has a positive effect on population aggregation,and the latter has a greater coefficient of action than the former.In cities with a population size of less than 30 million,secondary industry transfer has a inhibitory effect on population aggregation,and tertiary industry transfer can promote population agglomeration,but has a small impact.In the sample of eight national-level urban groups,the second and third industries have positive effects on population aggregation,and there are differences in coefficients of action,indicating that in different urban groups,the second and third industries have different effects on population aggregation.In both categories of samples,the interaction coefficients between the second and third industries and per capita disposable income were significantly positive,and industrial transfer could attract people into cities by promoting income growth.Based on the above research conclusions,this thesis puts forward the following recommendations: First,to break down administrative barriers and promote effective industrial docking.From the top-level design of China’s regional economy to carry out the overall planning,break the administrative restrictions between regions,establish a linkage mechanism for enterprise development,improve industrial facilities,optimize industrial layout,for industrial transfer direction.Second,reduce the cost of labor mobility and improve the quality of labor force.Establish a unified labour market and regulate the labour market system.Give play to the leading role of the government,strengthen the leading and regulating role of social public services in population movement,and formulate policies to lead the construction of unified public service standards for national urban clusters;...