Research On The Impact Of Family Population Structure And Economic Conditions On Housing Deman

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998,China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly.From 1998 to 2021,the average sales price of commercial residential buildings in China has increased by 460.73%.Population is the main consumer of the housing market.The change of population structure will directly affect the total housing demand and the change of housing demand type of the whole society.In recent years,the structural contradiction of the population of our country has shown continuously.The current population structure shows a phenomenon of aging and few children coexisting.Since 2000,our country has gradually relaxed the family planning policy and encouraged birth,but the adjustment of the birth policy has played a weak role in alleviating aging and low fertility rate.It is of great practical significance to explore the influence of family population structure and economic conditions on housing demand under the background of the continuous relaxation of birth policy,the gradual disintegration of traditional large-scale families and the "high price and large increase" in the real estate market.There are many factors affecting housing demand.Most scholars use macro data to explore from economic,population and other factors,while few use micro personal and family data to explore.Moreover,most scholars regard housing demand as a whole and do not make a more detailed division of housing demand types.Micro questionnaire survey data is more accurate to describe the characteristics and psychology of residents,and it contains more extensive information.Based on the data of 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),this paper uses Probit model to empirically analyze the impact of household population structure and economic conditions on housing demand.Combined with multiple Logit models,the effects of family demographic structure and economic status on different types of housing demand are further analyzed.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The number of elderly people aged 65 or above in the family has a significant negative impact on the intention to buy a house,and the number of elderly people aged 65 or above in the family in the place with slower economic development level has a stronger obstacle effect on the intention to buy a house.(2)The number of unmarried males in a family has a significant positive impact on the intention to buy a house.The number of boys in a family with a higher level of economic development has a stronger promoting effect on the intention to buy a house.Moreover,compared with other demographic structures of the family selected in this paper,the number of unmarried males in a family has the greatest impact on the intention to buy a house.(3)The number of working-age population in a family has a significant positive impact on the house purchase intention.The larger the number of working-age population in a family,the more likely it is that a family will produce the reserve housing demand first.(4)Both household income and household assets have a significant positive impact on house purchase intention.In the empirical analysis of subsamples,household income still has a significant positive impact on house purchase intention.However,the existing assets of households in first-tier cities and second-tier cities have no significant influence on the purchase intention.(5)In the households with the intention to buy a house,the increase in the number of unmarried men in the family leads to the highest probability of the first generation of reserve housing demand;With the increase of the number of middle-aged and elderly people in the family,the probability of the first generation of reserve housing demand is the least.(6)The higher the family income level,the more likely the family to produce the improvement type of housing demand;The larger the amount of existing household assets,the greater the probability of the first generation of reserve housing demand.