Research On The Construction And Prediction Of The Prosperity Index Of Small And Medium-sized Commercial Circulation Enterprises

Small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises are widely distributed in catering,wholesale,retail and other industries,bringing great convenience to people’s daily life and making their own efforts for the prosperity and development of the country.At present,small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises have accounted for the vast majority of the country’s small and medium-sized enterprises,and become the main force driving the growth of the national economy.However,as the complex economic situation continues to change and the economic model continues to change,small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises have also undergone many changes.The purpose of this study is to establish a suitable index system,compile and analyze the prosperity index of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises,and analyze and predict their development trend.First of all,this paper analyzes the overall development of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises in China in recent years,and finds that the number of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises in China has continued to grow in recent years,making significant contributions to the promotion of employment,and basically maintaining a balanced development,but the business efficiency of enterprises has declined.At the same time,the analysis of regional development of trade circulation industry can control the development level of small and medium-sized trade circulation enterprises as a whole.Secondly,this paper constructs the prosperity index system of small and mediumsized commercial circulation enterprises in China from three aspects of the overall scale,development level and circulation environment of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises,and confirms that the benchmark index for the prosperity analysis of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises is the total retail sales of social consumer goods.After data preprocessing,it combines three methods,namely,time difference correlation analysis,K-L information volume and peak-valley correspondence,Divide the selected indicators into leading indicators,consistent indicators and lagging indicators,and determine the weight of each indicator.On this basis,the diffusion index and composite index of the leading,consistent and lagging index groups are calculated respectively,and the leading degree of the leading index and the impulse response of the consistent index to the leading index are studied.The results show that the analysis results of the diffusion index and the composite index are basically the same.The prosperity index of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises is in a prosperous state,and the leading index is about one year ahead of the consensus index.The leading index has the same impact on the consensus index around the fourth period,and the impact reaches the peak,and then gradually weakens,with obvious sustainability.Finally,GMDH,RGMDH neural network,ARIMA model and ETS model are used to predict the change trend of the prosperity index of small and medium-sized commercial circulation enterprises in the next five periods,and the prediction effects of these four prediction models are compared and analyzed.The results show that the prediction results based on GMDH and RGMDH artificial neural network methods have smaller error and better prediction effect.