Study On Identification And Land Use Efficiency Of Shrinking Population Area In Guangdong Province

At present,high-quality development has become the primary task of comprehensively building a modernized socialist country.Guangdong,as the vanguard,pioneer and experimental area of China’s reform and opening,shouldered a new mission in the overall situation of Chinese modernization,and made great efforts to realize a new leap forward in Guangdong’s modernization with new responsibilities and new achievements.In recent years,however,population shrinkage has become more severe and a major global challenge.Population contraction leads to the shortage of regional labor resources,vacant buildings and slowing down of economic growth,which not only affects regional economic development,but also further aggravates the imbalance of regional development and becomes one of the obstacles to high-quality development.The paradox of the coexistence of population contraction and urban space expansion is quite common in China.The incongruity between population contraction and construction land growth intensifies the extensive use of land,reduces the utilization efficiency of land,and affects the development of social economy.Therefore,how to coordinate the healthy development of regional population and promote the efficient use of regional land resources in Guangdong Province has become a problem that must be solved in the process of high-quality development of Guangdong Province.In this paper,the county area was taken as the unit to identify the temporal and spatial evolution of population shrinkage in Guangdong Province and its causes.The dynamic attitude analysis of land use,information entropy of land use structure,balance degree of land use structure and dominance degree of land use were used to analyze the characteristics of land use structure change,and the entropy method was used to evaluate the land use efficiency of each county.Then the interactive mechanism of population shrinkage and land use efficiency was discussed by SEM model.The conclusion is as follows:(1)The development trend of shrinking population areas is spreading as a whole.The number of counties in the shrinking permanent population areas changes from 10.48% in2000-2010 to 40.32% in 2010-2020.Most of the shrinking permanent population areas are mainly distributed in northern Guangdong.There are obvious differences in the number and spatial distribution of permanent population shrinking areas.The local distribution of permanent population shrinking areas in Guangdong Province evolved from 2000 to 2010,to2010 to 2020,and the distribution pattern of permanent population shrinking areas is concentrated and continuous.The mechanical change of population in the past 20 years is the dominant factor in the formation of population shrinking areas in Guangdong Province,and the outflow of permanent resident population is the fundamental reason for the formation of population shrinking areas.The outflow of the registered floating population in Guangdong Province is mainly influenced by the pull factors of the inflow area.The high income level of the inflow area,the perception of social integration of the floating population and good educational resources are the main factors that increase the risk of the change of the domicile into the population shrinking area.The output value of the secondary and tertiary industries,the density of companies and enterprises,the number of primary and secondary schools,and the number of medical and health institutions have a significant impact on the population shrinkage.The influence of all factors on the population shrinkage is spatially heterogeneous,and all of them form a circular distribution characteristic with the county region of the Pearl River Delta as the core and gradually changing outward.(2)From 2010 to 2020,compared with non-shrinking areas,the area of cultivated land,forest land and grassland in permanent population shrinking areas generally showed a declining trend,while the expansion speed of construction land increased.The area of water area changed from a declining trend in 2010 to a growing trend in 2020,and the vast majority of unused land was in a declining or unchanged state.But the rate of consumption of unused land has slowed.In 2010 and 2020,compared with non-shrinking areas,permanent population shrinking areas are mainly distributed in areas with relatively orderly land use structure,lower equilibrium degree and higher dominance degree.From 2010 to 2020,compared with non-shrinking areas,the land use efficiency of permanent population shrinking areas is mainly at a low level.The productivity efficiency of cultivated land,the productivity efficiency of construction land,the degree of land development,the intensity of construction land expansion and the vitality of county area in shrinking areas are mainly at a lower level or below.(3)The interaction between population shrinkage and land use efficiency follows a cyclic feedback process,which is in line with the influence path paradigm of “population outflow→ social development → land use efficiency → social development → total population”(“ → ”means that the explanatory variable points to the explained variable).Population shrinkage and land use efficiency not only have direct effects on each other,but also have indirect effects on each other through influencing social development factors.In general,the feedback effect between population shrinkage and land use efficiency can be divided into two kinds,one is positive and the other is negative.The positive feedback is that population outflow can improve the regional land use efficiency by affecting the local general budget expenditure: population outflow can promote the local general budget expenditure,so as to support the development of industry,promote the investment of social fixed assets and the digital development of the region,improve the production efficiency of construction land,and thus improve the regional development vitality.The negative feedback is that the population outflow affects the regional urbanization development and makes the regional land use efficiency inefficient: Population outflow inhibits the improvement of regional urbanization level,thus hindering regional digital development,resulting in the decline of production efficiency of construction land and cultivated land,the reduction of expansion scale of construction land,the decline of land development degree,the reduction of local general budget expenditure,the limitation of industrial development,the reduction of regional population,and the decline of regional development vitality.