Study On The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Land Finance

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economic development has made remarkable achievements.However,since China entered the age of aging in 2000,a series of population age structure problems,such as low fertility rate,deep aging,and reduced labor supply,have brought severe challenges to China’s economic and social development in the new era.At the same time,the tight local finance and the resulting land finance problems are also widely concerned by all sectors of society.Under the double pressure of highlighting the problem of population age structure and the severe land finance situation,in-depth study of the relationship between population age structure and land finance,explore how to seize the opportunity to harvest the demographic dividend in the new era,how to effectively reform to alleviate land finance and other issues,not only help to verify the relationship between population age structure and local government land finance.It can also provide a theoretical basis for government departments to introduce relevant population policies and fiscal and tax systems,which is of great practical value and theoretical significance.The relationship between population age structure and land finance is very complicated.Children,labor force and elderly population have different impacts on land finance.On the basis of sorting out the causes and development lines of land finance,this study first makes a reasonable definition of the population age structure and the relevant indicators of land finance,and measures the population age structure by the proportion of children,labor,the proportion of the elderly,the proportion of children and the proportion of the elderly.The proportion of land transfer revenue in general fiscal revenue and the absolute number of land transfer revenue were used to measure land finance,and relevant data of the 7th national population census in 2020 and land transfer were selected to test the mediating effect of population age structure on land finance from housing demand and financial pressure.In addition,this study also tested the threshold effect of sex ratio on the path of population age structure affecting land finance,and compared and analyzed the influence of population age structure on land finance in 2010 vertically to illustrate the change of the influence over time.The above studies show that the proportion of children and children is positively correlated with land finance,the proportion of labor has a negative impact on land finance,and the proportion of the elderly has no significant impact on land finance.In the regions with different geographical location,urbanization rate,education level and housing price,the influence of population age structure on land finance is significantly different.Population age structure affects land finance mainly through housing demand and financial pressure.Specifically,the increase in the proportion of children and teenagers tends to increase residents’ housing demand and government support burden.The increase in housing demand and financial pressure make local governments increasingly favor land finance.The increase of labor ratio will reduce the housing demand and financial pressure,and restrain the land financial behavior of local governments.Increasing the proportion of the elderly will reduce the housing demand and increase the government’s pension burden.Therefore,in general,the proportion of the elderly has no significant impact on the land finance.The gender ratio has a significant threshold effect on the influence of population age structure on land finance.In the high sex ratio range,the effect of alleviating land finance is weakened by the increase of labor population proportion and the decrease of the elderly population proportion.On the basis of systematically sorting out the background of population-related theories and land finance related systems,this study uses the data collected from cities above the prefecture level for empirical analysis to verify the relationship between population age structure and land finance.While enriching the theoretical research on population age structure and land finance,the empirical results are also obtained.In order to provide some reference for seizing the opportunity of changing population age structure and alleviating the problems of land finance,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as arranging land finance transition in advance,actively guiding the transformation of population structure,continuing to deepen the reform of fiscal and taxation system,and implementing differentiated land finance reform in cities with different development characteristics according to local conditions.