Analysis Of Virtual Land Import And Export And Its Influencing Factors Under Agricultural Trade Between Chinaand Russia

Rapid economic development,urbanization and population growth have significantly increased the amount of land needed for productive activities,while serious land degradation problems exist,China’s land use is under great pressure.With the development of international trade,local factors are no longer the most important determinants of land use decisions,trade in products has realized the spatial reallocation of resources,and research on indirect land use related to consumption and trade flows has also become more and more important.In China’s agricultural foreign trade,Russia occupies a large share.With the rapid development of Russian agriculture,the trade cooperation between China and Russia will be closer in the future.Agricultural trade volumes can quantify virtual land transfers between countries.This study takes the trade of agricultural products between the Chinese mainland and Russia as the research object,selects the trade data from 2000 to 2020,adopts the combination of physical measurement method and multi-regional input-output model,and analyzes the overall trade of agricultural products between China and Russia and China’s provincial level.Two scales of trade,accounting and analyzing the quantity and characteristics of virtual land transfers caused by trade in different types of agricultural products and different regions.In addition,the impact of land use intensity,input-output structure,per capita external demand and population size on changes in the net import volume of virtual land in each province and city is quantified by the method of structural decomposition analysis,which provides a corresponding basis for subsequent trade policies.The research results show that:(1)Under the trade of agricultural products between China and Russia,China has always been a net importer of virtual land,and the scale of net import of virtual land has continued to expand,of which the increase in the import trade of forest products has played the most important role,accounting for a large proportion in both import and export.(2)The virtual land transfer in the trade between Chinese provinces and Russia presents different results due to differences in geographical location.The provinces with relatively large virtual land imports are concentrated in the Northeast,North China and Northwest regions,of which Heilongjiang Province and Inner Mongolia are the most important ones.The two provinces with the largest net import of virtual land accounted for more than 90% of the total.Most of the provinces in central China have a net outflow of virtual land,and the outflow of virtual land is relatively small.(3)The influencing factors of the net import and export of virtual land in various provinces in China also show different results.Land use intensity is the main factor affecting the only import of virtual land in Northeast China,and it has a promoting effect.For most other provinces and cities,changes in the input-output structure and changes in per capita external demand are important factors that affect their net import of virtual land,but their effects will have completely opposite effects due to different regions.