| After entering the 21 st century,my country’s demographic dividend has gradually disappeared,and the country has to face an extremely realistic problem of population aging.At present,there are 190 million people over the age of 65 in my country,and the aging rate is also 13.50%,which is much higher than the world level of 9.3%.In some small and medium-sized cities in my country’s large labor-exporting provinces,there are only some empty-nest elderly people left in rural areas,and the aging rate in some cities has exceeded 30%.And my country’s overall aging rate will further increase over time.It is expected that by 2050,my country’s overall aging rate will reach more than 20%.Such a thorny practical problem has also aroused the attention of the government and society.The real estate will also aim at the aging market and vigorously develop the elderly care real estate business.However,pension real estate inherits the original characteristics of long cycle,large investment and high risk of real estate,so its influencing factors are relatively complex and its operation mechanism is relatively diverse,which also continues to increase the operating risk of pension real estate.If investors ignore the risks of pension real estate in the face of high profits and invest rashly,this will cause certain problems.Once the risk of pension real estate is concentrated,it will cause the overall collapse of pension real estate,and the corresponding risks will continue to transfer to the investment side,which will affect the investors on the investment side.Therefore,in the process of pension real estate investment,it is necessary to be more cautious and strengthen investment risk management.However,there are relatively few articles on the investment risk management of pension real estate,and the results of the research literature also have certain limitations.Therefore,this paper chooses the investment risk management of pension real estate projects as the research object,and studies the existing problems in this area,which can further improve the literature richness in the corresponding fields,and also solve the actual problems in real estate investment risk management.In the process of research,this paper conducts research based on literature research method and case analysis method.Therefore,in the research process,it pays attention to combining theory with practice,and ideology guides event behavior.First of all,this paper sorts out the background and significance of the research and the corresponding research viewpoints on the investment risk management of pension real estate at home and abroad,analyzes and summarizes the current new viewpoints in the field of pension real estate investment management,so as to construct a theoretical support system for this research.On the basis of reviewing the existing literature,a relatively comprehensive evaluation index system is obtained by selecting investment risk indicators.Combined with AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on AHP weighted is constructed.In the model,primary indicators include environmental risk,financial risk,technical risk,management risk,and market risk.The secondary indicators include 18 sub-indices such as the risk of cultural differences in pensions,the risk of changes in supply and demand,and the risk of price changes.By selecting ZL senior care real estate project to evaluate,analyze and calculate,establish an index system,carry out quantitative calculation,analyze and evaluate the investment risk of ZL senior care real estate project,and the results show that its risk focuses on technical risk,financial risk and market risk.Moreover,this conclusion is consistent with reality.Based on this,this paper mainly gives corresponding countermeasures for ZL senior care real estate project from the above three aspects.In addition,the management risks and environmental risks involved in the model are fully and comprehensively discussed,researched,analyzed and discussed,and scientific,reasonable,perfect and comprehensive solutions are put forward in a targeted manner.This paper has targeted research and analysis on the ZL pension real estate project,in order to explore the specific types of investment risks.The significance of evaluation and response is to improve the level of risk management of project developers.At the same time,this paper can also better carry out the research and analysis of pension real estate projects,and provide sufficient reference and reference versions for this field,so that the corresponding research can be more complete and specific. |