Research On Inter-industrial Trade Effect Of Intermediate Product Correlation In China

The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century.A new round of industrial transformation is deepening,and the world is also experiencing new trends of upheaval and transformation,posing new challenges to economic development.In response to the changes in China’s development stage,environment and conditions,the CPC Central Committee proposed for the first time in 2020 to build a new development pattern in which the domestic cycle and the domestic and international cycle promote each other.The report of the 20 th CPC National Congress in 2022 emphasized again and highlighted the internal driving force of the domestic great cycle,which shows the importance of promoting the domestic great cycle.The principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed into the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life,which has become increasingly prominent in the unbalanced and inadequate regional economic development.The large regional economic gap will delay the upgrading and improvement of the domestic great cycle.At this time,the inter-regional trade,by virtue of the characteristics of dispatching goods,has become a key move to smooth the domestic great cycle and crack the differences and contradictions of regional economic development.The research heat of scholars on trade is only increasing,but most of the research focuses on international trade,and there are few studies on interregional trade.Limited studies of interregional trade also focus on a region of interregional trade transfer or transfer,few comprehensive investigation of the 31 provinces and urban areas of the development of interregional trade;Secondly,most scholars’ researches on inter-regional trade consider the whole from the macro level and seldom focus on the industrial level.In addition,based on the input-output table of each province in 2012 and 2017,the research found that the inter-regional trade of developed regions such as Beijing and Shanghai has been in surplus,while the inter-regional trade of less developed regions such as Yunnan,Guizhou and Gansu has been in deficit.What are the reasons for this phenomenon? Whether the regions with inter-regional trade surplus and inter-regional trade deficit have different trade characteristics;Whether similar industries also have similar trade characteristics.In order to solve the above doubts and sort out the related theories of interregional trade,the following theoretical hypotheses are proposed: the degree of intermediate goods correlation affects the development of interregional trade;The effect of interregional trade has regional heterogeneity and industrial agglomeration.Based on this,from the perspective of intermediate goods correlation,this paper constructs intra-industry correlation,inter-industry forward correlation,inter-industry backward correlation and omni-directional correlation matrix of intermediate goods based on multi-regional input-output,and builds an inter-industry trade model.Based on the input-output Table 42 industrial sectors of each province in 2012 and 2017,the hypothesis was verified.Regional heterogeneity is reflected by the geographical location of the region with inter-regional trade deficit,and industrial agglomeration is divided according to the correlation between the industry and its related industries.In terms of statistical methods,firstly,the influence coefficient and induction coefficient of each industry are calculated,so as to obtain the distance of related industries,obtain the size of industrial correlation force,and construct the industrial correlation matrix.The correlation coefficient of related industries was calculated to verify the characteristics of industrial agglomeration.Different from the traditional method,the input-output matrix is simply added.In this paper,the input-output matrix is divided into diagonal matrix and off-diagonal matrix to represent the horizontal correlation of intermediate products and the vertical correlation of intermediate products respectively.The off-diagonal matrix is further divided into forward association heterogeneity matrix and backward association heterogeneity matrix,and the concept of omni-directional association is proposed,namely omni-directional = diagonal ∪ forward ∪ backward.The input-output table is introduced into the econometric model to broaden the application range of input-output table and enrich the research ideas of econometric model.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)There is a certain correlation between regional economic development and inter-regional trade.The main manifestations are as follows: the economic development of the regions with inter-regional trade surplus is better,mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas;The economic development of regions with inter-regional trade deficit is weak,mainly concentrated in the western interior.(2)There is regional heterogeneity in the inter-regional trade effect of intermediate goods association.The inter-regional trade situation is different,and the correlation effect of intermediate goods industry is also different.The main performance is as follows: the inter-regional trade surplus area has comparative advantage on the inter-regional net transfer;The forward correlation effect of intermediate goods industry in regions with inter-regional trade deficit has comparative advantage on inter-regional net transfer.(3)The interregional trade effect of intermediate goods association has industrial agglomeration.The peripheral structure,the center of industrial agglomeration in the industrial chain,is different,and the correlation effect of intermediate goods is different.The interregional trade effect of intermediate goods correlation between central industry and two kinds of marginal industry has similar characteristics,both of which show positive promoting effect on interregional net transfer.A kind of marginal industry and peripheral industry also have similar characteristics of interregional trade effect,both of which show the reverse inhibition effect on interregional net transfer.In order to increase the net transfer amount between regions,the central industry can strengthen the connection between intermediate products and subsequent related industries.Two kinds of marginal industries can comprehensively enhance the relationship between intermediate products and themselves,forward and backward related industries;Peripheral industries can reduce the interconnections of intermediate goods;A kind of marginal industry can reduce the relationship between intermediate goods and its forward related industries.Based on the research conclusions,the following policy implications are proposed:(1)Formulate regional industrial and economic development plans according to local conditions by combining the advantages of local resource endowment to avoid the "one-size-fits-all" phenomenon;(2)dredge the blockages of the industrial chain,break trade barriers between various regional industries,strengthen the correlation of intermediate products industry,and improve industrial toughness;(3)Make use of its own advantages,focus on the development of central industries,and then introduce capital resources to drive the development of peripheral industries.