Study On The Integrated Evaluation For The Sustainable Development Of Urban Traffic System

Urban traffic system is an important component of urban economic system, and its sustainable development is the precondition of urban sustainable development. Sustainable development penetrates all the aspects of urban traffic system programming, construction, running and management. Therefore, sustainable development of the urban traffic system is not only a target and an activity process, but also a kind of thought mode. Economic feasibility, financial supportability, and social acceptability with sustainable environment statement are basic requests that city transportation system can keep on developing. As the precondition and foundation of economic development of the society, the city transportation aims at the improvement of people's living standard and the urban environment instead of the development of its own. The sustainable development of urban transportation should aim at being able to support and guarantee the urban sustainable development to provide the whole society with safe, efficient, comfortable, convenient traffic service with lower expenses, to reduce the pollution and damage to the city furthest, to ameliorate the citizen's living environment indeed and to stimulate the healthy development of economy, environment and transportation. The urban traffic system can realize sustainable development only in combination with coordinate development among the urban economy, society, and the environment.The purpose of comprehensive evaluation on sustainable development of the urban traffic system is to analyze the degree and level of it and to detect in time whether the factors of urban transportation system, such as society, economy, resources and environment, develop harmoniously, which means whether the city transportation system meet people's need with safe, efficient, comfortable service, affect the city's environment and utilize the resources reasonably. On the other hand, the comprehensive evaluation which is just a method of analyzing should focus on providing the decision-makers with the information of the solution to the conflict of supply and demand instead of its results. The information got from the comprehensive evaluation still needs some supports from some systemic and feasible theories. For this purpose, my thesis emphasized the following items:(1) This thesis has a systemic analysis on the sustainable development of urban traffic system. With the transfer between generations model of urban traffic system resources, it analyzes the impartiality between generations. With the impartiality model of the urban traffic natural resources consumption, and the urban district traffic proportional development model, it analyzes the urban traffic im partiality inner generation. It also has an empirical analysis with the example of the urban traffic system's developmental status from 2000 to 2005 of Chengdu. This thesis also analyzes the evolvement process of the urban traffic system with Logistic increase curve, and brings forward the mode of the sustainable development. With systemic self-organizing theory and the synergetic theory, it analyzes the urban traffic system how to develop cooperatively.(2) This thesis sets up a comprehensive evaluation system to sustainable traffic system development. On the conditions of principles and characters, the thesis systemically analyzes and discusses the comprehensive evaluation index system, using the methods of expert investigation and maxim irrelevance with the calculation methods and ways of the present urban traffic statistical data. At the same time, this thesis returns to the sieving methods of the index system with turns to handle consistently the method proceeded systematically argument and research.(3) This thesis also establishes comprehensive evaluation model and theory about urban traffic system synergetic development with the data envelopment analysis. It discusses and analyses the synergetic development lies in mutual adaptation, mutual cooperation, mutual accommodation, mutual promotion among the subsystems within the city traffic systems, and between the city traffic systems and other exterior systems. Then it synthetically evaluates, analyse and judge whether the society, the economy and the environment can develop coordinately with the urban traffic system, and knows what it has develop at present and how to develop in the future, and availably searches the essential reasons why the urban traffic development is unsynergetic, and provides the constructive suggestions to guidance the establishment of the adjustive policy in order to improve the synergetic ability and the sustainable ability. At the same time, it also has an empirical analysis with the example of the urban traffic system's synergetic developing status from 2000 to 2005 of Chengdu.(4) This thesis establishes comprehensive evaluation model and theory about the sustainable developing ability of the urban traffic system with the improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. That is, it establishes a complementary fuzzy preferential judgment matrix to replace the reciprocal fuzzy preferential judgment matrix with three-mark law, and make it accords with the ordinary thinking, the form becomes simpler, and it can satisfy the precision need and the fuzzy accordant condition at the same time. Furthermore, it need not verify its consistency. When it uses the objective weights by normalizing rank aggregation as the iterative value of the eigenvalue, we can not only decrease the iterative times but also quicken the convergent speed. We can control the comprehensive evaluating weights to meet the demand of the precision, and can reflect the fact for the sustainable developing ability of the urban traffic system more truly. Moreover, we can availably search the sticking point why the urban traffic development is unsustainable, and point the correcting direction, provide the decision-making information, so that the urban traffic system can develop sustainablely, and satisfy the demand that the city denizen can travel adequately, high efficiently, evenly, and harmoniously. Otherwise, it also has an empirical analysis with the example of the urban traffic system's sustainable developing status from 2000 to 2005 of Chengdu.