| With the improvement of living, people paied attention to diet structure and health. Vegetable was necessarity for life, and it occupied a pivotal position in the proportion of food consumption, and its’ price fluctuation influced life. From 2007, vegetable produce arears in Tianjin continously extended and production increased. Vegetable production had become an important way to increase farmers’ income. At the same time, Tianjin had a population of 15 million. Vegetatble price was very important to people’s life. If the price was very low, the farmers’ income could reduce and farmers’ enthusiasm would be affected; if the price was very high, the citizens were unsatisfied and the cost of living would be increased. Vegetable price kept in a reasonable range that could ensure farmers and consumers benefit maximization. In recent years, China’s vegetable prices fluctuated significantly. Tianjin vegetable prices fluctuated significantly which was affected by this. And a lot of factors were related such as market players were not mature, market system and the legal environment were not perfect. And for stable development of vegetable industry, increasing the income of farmers and ensuring the effective supply of vegetables in Tianjin, it was very important to study the factors influced vegetable price and to forecast overall trend of vegetable prices.Quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis were used in this study. The paper selected 14 vegetables as resarch object, which were prodcued and consumed very large. The paper took western economics, econometrics, statistics, and other related disciplines as guide, used H-P filtering method, ARIMA model, X12 seasonal adjustment method and early-warning methods. The paper analyzed the key points, laws and characteric which broght the vegetable price fluctuation, and then the paper established early-waring model and gave policy recommendations. The main contents of the paper included the following parts.Firstly, the paper analyed literature and information about vegetable price early-warnig. The paper generalied the main method of agricultural prodctions early-waring. And it gave principles and methods of vegetable price fluctuation.Secondly, the paper analyed the history track of average wholesale price of vegetables, solanaceous fruit vegetable, leafty vegetable and resistant to storage vegetable. And the paper concluded the cycle period and accumulation of price fluctuations.Thirdly, the paper used X12 seasonal adjustment method, ARIMA model, grey forecasting model to analyze the vegetable history price and comprised the results, and then it gave the vegetable forecast results of 2015 in Tianjin.Forthly, the paper described the status, cost benefit characteristics, demand change of vegetable prodcution and gave natural and economic policy environment. And the paper analyed factors affecting price fluctuations.Fifthly, the paper gave the early-warning princple and index system of vegetable price fluctuation, and then gave the Tianjin vegetable price fluctuation index system. And the paper gave first, synchronization and lagging indicators of classification. The paper took tomato price as an example and classified the early-warning index signs.Sixthly, the paper constructed the early-warnig model of vegetable price fluctuation in Tianjin and gave the results of vegetable price in Tianjin from January to December in 2015. The paper took tomato price fluctuation as an example and constucted early-waring model, and then gave the results of vegetable price fluctuation from 2003 to 2013.Finally, the paper gave the suggetions from the flowing aspects, plicy support, industrial development, science and technology support, and industry development... |
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