Risk Management For Economic Systems Based On Risk Energy Analysis

Risk management theory is formulated and developed in the research of traditionalrisk enterprisers. Pressed by market globalization and concomitant time based compe-tition, risk management of general economic system is increasingly important in bothresearch area and application. In this thesis, introducing risk energy concept, a novelrisk energy model is developed. A new risk management approach is presented and fur-ther veri?ed in an agile supply chain system. Major contents and results of this thesisare summarized as below: (1) As update to domino theory and energy release theory, the concept of riskenergy and risk energy bubbles are ?rst introduced, and risk energy bubble model isthen developed for risk analysis. Dynamic and interaction of all risk elements are ex-pressed by merge,transformation or release of corresponding risk energy bubbles. Thisrisk bubble concept and resultant risk model provides basis for quantitative analysis. (2) The existing risk models generally lack of structure and are hard to quantify.Thus in this paper, further to the risk bubbles model of the risk elements, a modellingapproach based on the risk energy is established for risks. Integrating models of all riskelements by means of risk energy, the complete risk model is developed. This model isstructural and quantitative. (3) Lack of quantitative methods for multi-factor risk analysis in the literature, aquantitative analyzing approach based on the above risk model is presented in this the-sis. By investigating the changes of risk energy and conditions they under, quantitativerelations among all the risk factors can be obtained. This method achieves quantitativeresults of multiple-factor risk synthetically. (4) Stipulation of risk countermeasure lack of quantitative basis by now. Thisthesis put forward the risk energy based countermeasure. By changing the risk energyproperty, regulating transformation or release time as well as raising systematic tol-erance, the risk incident frequency and risk loss is reduced, and the countermeasureis re?ned. The approach generates reasonable, economical countermeasure in face ofrisks and it is convenient to implement. (5) On the centralized agile supply chain model, the risk management strategy – III –ABSTRACTis put forward that dividing the agile supply chain into system layer, cooperation andentity layer. Model of cooperation layer parameterized by risk type T, P, Q or Sis given, followed by the detailed risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis results,realistic examples are used to evaluate and compare two countermeasures to changeenergy property and to improve the system tolerance. Results show that the risk energybased risk management approach is ef?cient in the general economic system.