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International Energy Cooperation Model And The Strategic Choice Of China

Posted on:2006-12-24Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z Z YeFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360152988298Subject:International relations
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Energy security is an issue of vital importance to the economic and social development of China in the coming decades. Seeking a peaceful rising-up, China has to address this issue with peaceful and cooperative approach that may contains: policy coordinating with major oil importing countries, cooperating with oil exporting countries and leading multinational oil companies, and participating in international institutions of energy. As regard to international energy cooperation, some questions must be answered: what are the motives and barriers to the energy cooperation among major countries? How is such cooperation realized with these two kinds of elements co-existing? Is there any successful pattern of energy cooperation among countries?Energy security includes adequate oil supply, smooth transportation and stable price. In the coming decades, both the global oil reserves and production capacity are abundant. Without large-scale war, disruption of oil from individual exporting country can be made up by the increasing supply of other producing countries. Most oil transport lines are safe and smooth. Shutting down of any individual transport line may cause temporary shortage in certain area. The world oil market, which is already an integrated one, is adaptable to supply via other lines. Short-term disruption of supply and shutting down of transport lines is not likely to cause direct serious consequences in oil importing countries. However, these two problems will lead to the rise of oil price, which does cause trouble and seems to be the core issue of energy security in general.Market situation (i.e. balance between supply and demand), political interference, global integration and speculative forces are the four elements of critical effect on oil price. Various types of political, economical, military and technologicalcauses may have impact on the production, consumption and transportation of oil, and consequently on its price. This dissertation put forward a Supply-Demand Formula of International Oil Price, which classifies all elements affecting oil price into four dimensions, i. e. long-term supply, long-term demand, short-term supply and short-term demand. In the process of oil pricing, the balance between long-term supply and long-term demand sets the market basis. The balance depends mainly on economic elements and market forces. The interaction between short-term supply and demand decides the range of oil price fluctuation. The interaction depends mainly on psychological elements and political forces.Taking the Supply-Demand Formula of International Oil Price as a tool, this dissertation analyzes the causes of four periods of price soaring since 1973 and the experiences of international energy cooperation among major oil importing countries. As international cooperation in other spheres, international energy cooperation also has its motives and barriers. Finding and conforming the common ground of national interests may help to activate the cooperative motives and start the process of cooperation. After that, states may strengthen their cooperation through sharing information and taking joint actions. On adequate international cooperating experience, building international institutions may lead to stable cooperation. With a review of historical experience, this dissertation also analyzes five patterns of international energy cooperation, i. e. the pattern of common goal, the pattern of information sharing, the pattern of joint action, the pattern of bilateral interdependence and the pattern of international institutions. The utility of these five patterns in interfering the four dimensions of the Formula is also carefully inspected.With the guidance of the Formula and the patterns, this dissertation researches on China' s energy cooperation strategy in the coming two decades in which the country will have higher and higher dependency on importing oil while there isgoing to be adequate supply of oil from outside. Actively participating in the existing multilateral cooperation institutions, and promoting e...
Keywords/Search Tags:Energy cooperation, energy security, oil price, cooperation pattern, energy strategy
PDF Full Text Request
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