Quantitative Prediction Of Population Structure And Rural Labor Force Transfer In Jiangxi

San-nong issue in China has been for a long time, there are two contradictions hidden behind the san-nong issue, one is the tense relationship between people and land, the other is the division of the economic structure between urban and rural.To resolve these two contradictions mainly depends on the transfer of rural surplus labor. Therefore, speeding up the transfer of rural surplus labor is an effective way of the development of agriculture, affluent farmers, rural economic prosperity.The transfer of rural labor force in two ways: migration to the cities and to engage in local non-agricultural production activities. The former is a range of geographical mobility, that is "leave the village"; the latter is a range of occupational mobility, that is "leave the land".After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's overall national strength has been increased, people's living standards greatly improved. But at the same time, as a result of China's double economic structure of urban-rural split long existence, there is unbalanced economic development between urban and rural,which has caused that urbanization is far behind industrialization, the living standard of the farmers is much lower than the urban people. With China's economic developing, the net income per year of the farmeres raises, but the gap between urban and rural is growing. The Chinese government issued a series of principles and policies to alleviate or solve the problem of agriculture on this historical background. The transfer of rural labor has thus entered a new period.Jiangxi is a traditional agricultural province, there is the vast majority of the rural population. Jiangxi's industry-developed, the level of urbanization is relatively low, the current labor in rural areas are mainly migrant workers, which determines the characteristics of Jiangxi's rural labor transfer is still a long way to go.Based on population, economics and sociology theory, this dissertation researches about demographic structure and the transfer of rural labor of Jiangxi Province, it discusses and analyses their status quoes elaborately at first, then establishes many models,which predictes the structure and the migration of population in the future and puts forward the corresponding management measures. Chapter1 of this article discusses the research background of the rural labor force transfer. Chapter2 summarizes the related theory, including the labor transfer theory and system dynamics theory. Chapter3 carries out a comparative analysis about the history and the status quo of labor at home and abroad, it analyzes the labor transfer of the United States, Japan, Britain, South Korea and Latin American integrated with research results and defines four pieces of experience about the developed countries of the rural labor force transfer. Firstly, optimizing the quality of the labor force is the basis of continuing large-scale transfer of rural labor; Secondly, the rural land system in line with our national conditions is an important prerequisite for the labor transfer; Thirdly, developed industry and tertiary sectors is the basic condition of the rural labor force transfer; Fourthly, promoting the construction of small towns actively and making rural labor transfer on the spot is an important way of the latter part of the labor movement. It analyzes the current situation and characteristics of China's rural labor force transfer, which is the foundation of deeply qualitative and quantitative researches in the following.The main research results are as follows:1. Feedback and simulation analysis of rural labor transfer in China using the system dynamics.It establishes five mode-cap growth archetypes about national rural labor transfer. According to the principle of the elimination of growth and the experience of developed countries, it puts forward five management methods to promote the rural labor force transfer considering the influence of the employment environment, rural education system and related factors.It builds up quantitative simulation system dynamics model of China's rural labor force transfer that is made up of six basic rate inflow trees, gives embedded computing about six trees, gets network flow map of the transfer of rural labor force, analyzes and calculates the feedback circle of the flow chart. Basing on above, it establishes the equation of variables and gives quantitative simulation analysis of the implementation of management methods.2. Setting up a system dynamics model based on the Songjian population model and predicting demographic structure of Jiangxi.The prediction shows: on the one hand, the aging phenomenon will be more and more serious in Jiangxi; on the other hand, Jiangxi Province has about 20 years' "demographic dividend" period. We should make full use of this good 20 years or so to develop Jiangxi's economy and promote the transfer of rural labor to lay a good foundation for future development in Jiangxi Province.3. Obtaining a theoretical solution of migration model.All kinds of references just introduce the migration model,but do not solve it. This dissertation solve transport model in detail by the mathematical method, which is conducive to the research about the model.4. Establishing the migration system dynamics model of Jiangxi Province based on Keyfitz model, Rogers model and the model of the United Nations.Taking United Nations system dynamics model as example, it carries out the urban population curve analysis of rural areas in Jiangxi Province and overcomes difficulties of quantitative solution about the migration model.5. Building up the better migration model.As the Keyfitz model, Rogers model and the model of the United Nations use constant coeffcient, which makes related variable change in the same direction, it is incompatible with social and economic development. In this dissertation, it improves the migration model, turns the coefficient into the variable coefficients, establishes system dynamics model and forecasts the situation on the transfer of rural labor in Jiangxi Province. The results show that under certain conditions, the rural population of Jiangxi Province will reduce to 627 million in 2050 from 3,000 million in 2000, the strategic shift of the major rural population is expected to achieve success.6. Analysis of the influence to Jiangxi's economy about rural labor force transfer.At present, the rural labor in Jiangxi transfer mainly to foreign province, but in recent years, workers in the Jiangxi province are constantly on the rise.Shortage of workers in the Pearl River Delta region for the first time in 2004 now spreads to the Jiangxi Province. Too much of the rural labor force in Jiangxi transfer to the outside will reduce the province's human capital, affects the economic development of Jiangxi. According to the prediction results, the number of rural labor force for the transfer in Jiangxi will reduce, which causes the change of the way looking for job in Jiangxi Province, it changes from focusing on exporting the rural labor to the coastal province to the principle of attaching equal importance to both inside and outside, guiding the migrant workers return to work and entrepreneurship, promoting the comprehensive development of Jiangxi's economy.