The Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of Poverty Dynamics In China

Since the Great Reform, China has remained high economic growth; furthermore, it has got a great progress in poverty alleviation. At present, China has wholly got into the society of xiaokang, and the economy of China is changing for the better. But, the poverty in China isn't fully resolved, besides, it happens in a more complicated way. On the one hand, the relative poverty is more obvious as the worseness of income unfairness. On the other hand, since the opportunities and risks are growing simultaneously, the income of the people in the lower class is more frangible; moreover, the poverty in China is changing as time goes, and behaves in a dynamic way. What's more, as the reform of market-orientation goes, poverty is not a problem of pure economics; it is more like a comprehensive result of economy society politics and culture. Thus, analyzing the relative poverty in China, studying the difference of poverty dynamics between the urban and rural areas, and researching the mechanism of poverty dynamics based on a multi-disciplinary angle, which are solved that is good for a better understanding of poverty in China, and provides the realistic basement for the poverty alleviation.This paper studies the whole poverty condition and its dynamics based on the poverty indexes and the transition matrix; besides, based on the newest analysis of economics and sociology, we propose a theoretical and econometrical research on the poverty mechanisms from the angles of economic growth human capital and social capital by using the Logit model on the data from CGSS and CHNS; furthermore, built on the research and experience of poverty alleviation in foreign countries, we propose some suggestion for the poverty alleviation in the last part of this paper.This paper is divided into six parts, it goes as follows:Chapter 0 is the introduction. In this part, we introduce the research background and meaning, define the subject and scape, propose the content and logic, summarize the methods, and put forward the creative points and shortage. Chapter 1 focuses on the theory evolution. According to the poverty analysis in the foreign countries, we summarize the content and mechanisms of poverty, and put forward the shortage of the existing research.Chapter 2 describes the poverty condition in China. In this part, we mainly analyze the poverty condition from the angle of statistics and dynamics, and compare poverty of Urban and Rural.Chapter 3 constructs the theoretic frame. In this part, we firstly propose the functional mechanisms of economic growth human capital and social capital. Secondly, we bring those three factors together and construct the theoretical frame for this paper. Since the economic growth is influenced by the human capital of the family, it can't affect poverty automatically; as to human capital, its effects are decided by three stages:investment—matching—implement. And social capital which is an institutional social network would be functional in the three stages mentioned above.Chapter 4 is the econometric proof of the mechanisms proposed in Chapter 3. In this part, we check up the mechanisms by using the Logit model on the data both from CGSS and CHNS. It concludes:First, Economic Growth doesn't decrease the poverty simultaneously, but it would influence the poverty dynamics. Specifically speaking, it mainly decreases the poverty entrance of the rural family and increases the poverty exit of the urban family. Second, the human capital such as education training and health could help alleviate the poverty in both statistics and dynamics, but the effects are different between the Urban and Rural family. For the Rural family, education is important for the poverty dynamics, the education in high school and college decreases the poverty entrance, besides the education in junior high school is influential for both poverty entrance and exit. For the Urban family, education mainly influences the poverty entrance but is not so important for poverty exit. The education in junior high school and college decreases the poverty entrance, but completing high school doesn't affect the poverty dynamics. Thirdly, social capital would decrease the poverty emergence. In the statistical analysis, we find that the scale and level of social network are important factors of the social capital in the urban family, meanwhile, there is a big difference in social capital between the poor and the non-poor; in the econometric analysis, we can figure out that social capital in the urban family could decrease the poverty emergence effectively.Chapter 5 summarizes the experience of anti-poverty policy. In this part, we choose some developed and developing countries to make a comparison between them, and summarize the experience of anti-poverty policy.The research in this paper would be creative in facets as follows:First, we construct a mechanism of multi-factors and test it in the econometric part. Second, in the analysis of poverty condition and mechanism, we pursue the research in an angle of both statistics and dynamics. Third, we use data of micro economy, which reflects the difference of the poor and improves the reliability of the conclusion.Meanwhile, restricted by the theoretic level of mine and the data, there are some shortages in this paper:First, we mainly study the poverty of economy, it is not sufficient in the analysis about poverty of non-economy. Second, in the econometric research of social capital, we don't include it in the study of poverty dynamics in China and statistics for the rural family.