Subjective Game Analysis On The Safety Behavior Of Organization In The High-Risk-System

In recent years, with the economic development and the social progress in our country, the number of accidents, the number of major accidents and the deaths decreased while they were still huge, in which the accidents in High-Risk-System accounted for a large proportion. However, High-Risk-System belonged to the national pillar industry such as chemical industry, energy industry, building industry and transportation industry which played an irreplaceable role for the economic development and the social progress in our country. So, it was significant to study factors affecting High-Risk-System security for reducing the risk.In the study, a kind of subjective game method was proposed by introducing psychology theory into evolutionary game theory. And the method was used to analysis the mechanism by which safety behavior occurred in three kinds of High-Risk-System. The main content was as follows:Firstly, two problems, why intentional unsafe behavior occurred and why the deaths in road traffic accidents accounted for a large proportion in all accidents, were put forward, and two types of targeted methods, the subjective game and the classification and comparison were selected to solve them. Then the High-Risk-System was divided into self-organizing system, hetero-organizing system and hybrid organizing system.Secondly, the subjective game was used to investigate the road traffic system, the nuclear power station system and the construction system, which in turn corresponded to self-organizing system, hetero-organizing system and hybrid organizing system. And the conclusion, all individuals tended to attach importance to safety while the losses of unsafe behavior were not less than the cost of safety behavior, was drawn. Then another conclusion, the individuals in the hybrid organizing system were most likely to emphasis on safety, was drawn.Thirdly, a numerical simulation was used to investigate the factors and four conclusions were drawn. The first one was reducing the cost of safety behavior and increasing the losses such as the risk perception, the proportion of the risk spread to other workers and the punishment risk from supervisors were helpful. The second one was the proportion of the risk spread to supervisors only affected the supervisors and the punishment risk from other workers only affected the workers. The third one was the accident compensation did not affect the result. And the fourth one was there was "Free-rider" phenomenon between the supervisors and the workers. Fourthly, a numerical simulation was used to investigate the relationship between the proportion of two types of personnel emphasis on safety, which showed the direction the proportion of two types of personnel emphasis on safety changed was inverse. However, in some special conditions, the direction the proportion of two types of personnel emphasis on safety changed was the same. Obviously, some parameters changing near the critical value affected the result, which was called "the butterfly effect".Furthermore, by taking JH high-speed railway construction project as an example, a safety program management system of the double helix based on the correction of behavior was introduced. The system, introducing the idea of modularization into the non-material production process, was able to ensure the smooth implementation of the program and the continuous improvement with the entire dynamic education, the automatic visual monitoring as well as three-dimensional evaluation.